Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240159 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 959 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING A THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NEW ENGLAND-SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A CANADIAN POLAR AIRMASS HAS BEEN DISPLACED PRETTY FAR SOUTHWARD OWING TO THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A RATHER PERSISTENT HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND NWLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRESSURE SURGE WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING FAST. THEREFORE, LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE AND DID NOT SEE A PRESSING NEED TO EXPAND THE FREEZING WARNING FOR EASTERN PA AND NW NJ ANY FARTHER SOUTH. THE DAYTIME/CAA STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. THE EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
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&& .SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
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AFTER A VERY CHILLY START...WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANYWHERE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SLIDE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BY LATE SATURDAY...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY COOL CONDITIONS. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN IS FOR MID WEEK BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST ON THUR.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED A BIT THIS EVE ONCE THE SUN WENT DOWN BUT GUSTS TO 20 KT HAVE LINGERED THRU 02Z AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BECOME LESS FREQUENT LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. BKN-OVC SKIES WITH CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN 4-7 KFT WILL START TO CLEAR LATE THIS EVE. ON FRIDAY...AFTER 12Z VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH OF A KILG/KACY LINE. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .MARINE...
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GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH WEAKENS...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING IF THE HIGH IS A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO GENERATE HIGHER SEAS OR WINDS. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONTINUED SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS PLUS ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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CONDITIONS MAY BE ENHANCED ON FRIDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 20S IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SUSTAINED WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE MET IS FUEL MOISTURE. FINE FUEL MOISTURE IS STILL HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND COORDINATE WITH OUR FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRODUCTS BECOME NECESSARY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-101>106. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101- 103-105. NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>022-027. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMZ NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...SMZ LONG TERM...SMZ AVIATION...KLEIN/SMZ/GIGI MARINE...KLEIN/SMZ/GIGI FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN/GIGI/JOHNSON

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