Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 020058 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 858 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THOUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, CRESTS OVERHEAD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MAY STALL OVER OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF CAPE HATTERAS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALSO, SOME RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO POKE DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THEY WERE MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT FROM THE POCONOS AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY DOWN INTO CHESTER COUNTY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY AND THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO FOLLOW IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN NEW YORK, ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR ALL BUT OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY. THE WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD MAKE A GOOD AMOUNT OF PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN EXCEPTION BEING THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S THERE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S IN OUR COASTAL COUNTIES DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE OCEAN. READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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SUNDAY - MONDAY...A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH A BUILDING SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE. 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TOWARDS THE DOUBLE DIGIT MARK BY MONDAY WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED RETURN FLOW SETTING UP WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MONDAY FLIRTING WITH THE 80F MARK. THINGS SHOULD BE PRETTY WELL CAPPED SO EXPECT A DRY PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES A DECAYING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN SAG BEFORE IT BEGINS TO STALL OUT AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. AS OF NOW THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN WE HAVE THE BETTER THERMAL FORCING AND SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. THURSDAY - FRIDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SOMEWHERE EITHER TO OR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY SHOULD MAKE FOR A DRY DAY AS MID- LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD ONCE AGAIN...A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED. THE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TOWARDS THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES DURING THE PEAK HEATING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK THAT TRIES TO SLIDE NORTHWARD UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BROKEN CEILINGS ABOVE 4000 FEET, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND KRDG AND KABE THIS EVENING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 0400Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEY MAY BE LOCATED AROUND KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG. HOWEVER, THEIR ANTICIPATED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DOES NOT WARRANT THEIR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. A LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND MAY PERSIST AT KACY AND KMIV OVERNIGHT. OUR OTHER SIX TAF SITES SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND MAY BECOME VARIABLE FOR A SHORT TIME IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INLAND FROM THE COAST. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A COLD BEGINS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA DURING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHOULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN THE WIND MAY BEGIN TO VEER TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM ABOUT LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON SATURDAY. ALSO, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON MOST OF OUR OCEAN WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED SLOW DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS, AS WELL AS WIND SPEEDS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR THE WATERS OFF OCEAN COUNTY, AND IT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM SATURDAY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE PROVIDING US WITH RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS COMMENCE WITH A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SEAS BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT MAY CROSS OUR WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER

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