Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 030018 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 818 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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A NICE QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLOUDS ON THE DECREASE AND WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING. THE SEA BREEZE EASILY COASTED ACROSS THE SHORE AREAS AND THE DEL VALLEY EARLIER AND PUSHING UP INTO PA ATTM. FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREAS...BUT THE ODDS OF THAT ARE RATHER LOW. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE EARLIER FCST LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND METRO AREAS AND LOW/MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... INCREASED RIDGING AND FARTHER OFFSHORE MOVEMENT OF THE 500MB TROF AND SFC LOW WILL TRANSLATE INTO A WARMER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH LESS CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND AND NO CHANCE FOR PCPN. 18C AIR AT BOTH 925MB AND 850MB OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL START MAKING A TURN TOWARD OUR CWA, BUT NOT ARRIVE IN TIME FOR SUNDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL BE A SEVERAL DEG C UPTICK IN TEMPS AT BOTH THOSE LEVELS SUNDAY. LIKE TODAY, THE WARMER PART OF OUR AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE NWRN PART OF OUR CWA VS SOUTHEAST. THUS MAX TEMPS (AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHORE AND HIGHER TERRAIN) ARE PREDICTED TO BE QUITE UNIFORM. THIS IS IN LINE WITH FCST CONTINUITY AND THE HIGHER MOS DATASETS. A SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD FORM AGAIN, LIKELY NOT AS VIGOROUS AS TODAY`S. NONETHELESS SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR AT OR CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WATER TEMPS ARE STILL QUITE CHILLY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH BUILDS SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MOSTLY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN GETTING SQUEEZED FURTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WHILE PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.0-1.5 INCHES. WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES, THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST, WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG, SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES, AND TOTAL TOTAL VALUES NEAR 50. SO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONT AND/OR DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND MAY END UP WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL TRY TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING ALOFT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY BRING IN COOLER AIR AND KEEP CLOUD COVER IN AS WELL. THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY RETURN FOR SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA, INCREASING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. 00Z TAFS WERE VFR. OVERNIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WE DO NOT HAVE FOG PREDICTED AT THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE ABOUT NO FOG AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS IS LOW/MODERATE. AIR MASS HAS BEEN CLEAN AND DEW POINTS ARE NOT RISING THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR NO CIG EXPECTED, LESS CUMULUS CLOUDS THAN TODAY. WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ANOTHER SEA BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WE START THAT AT KACY AT 17Z. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MONDAY. TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR, POSSIBLE NEAR MVFR CIGS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SEAS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE THAN ANTICIPATED. MARGINAL SCA SEAS NORTH AND LOW END SCA SEAS SOUTH. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WE INTEND TO LET THE ANZ051 SCA FLAG DROP WITH THE 930 PM CWF ISSUANCE. THE REMAINING SCA FLAG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW. PERHAPS THEY WILL BE DROPPED OVERNIGHT WHEN NEEDED. ON DELAWARE BAY...AN UP THE BAY SE FLOW AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE REMAIN CONFIDENT THAT SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN AND CHANNEL UP DELAWARE BAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AND SEAS APPROACH 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 25-30 PERCENT, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/O`HARA MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/O`HARA FIRE WEATHER...

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