Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 211943 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 343 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING STOPS...SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH WINDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH/WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH/EAST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA. AN AREA OF DEEP MIXING AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE AREA. DECENT WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE NUMBERS COME UP SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT IT`S RATHER CLOSE. SMALL CHC FOR THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL SVR RISK FOR OUR DELMARVA AND SE/PA AREAS. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION AND EXIT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WE SHOULD SEE A COOLER PUSH OF AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD THERE BE ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WE COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME SNOW FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE HAD THIS PAST WEEK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE KEEP A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION WITH SOME 40S REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SYSTEM CAN PUSH TO THE NORTH WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE BIGGEST HINDRANCE WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE TODAY FOLLOWING THE FROPA THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMP HAVE RESULTED IN SOME DAYTIME CU ACROSS PA/NRN NJ. THESE CLOUDS MAY FILL- IN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME TEMPO BKN FOR KRDG/KABE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES. WED...THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AND SCT SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOW CHC TS FOR WED AFTERNOON. GUSTY SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING, GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING, GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM KPHL AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL ZONES THRU THE ORIGINAL 6 PM EXPIRATION TIME. IT APPEARS THAT SOME G25 AND NEAR 5 FT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THERE A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WINDS ACROSS DEL BAY ARE SUB-SCA AND SHOULD DEGREASE THRU THE EVENING...SO WE WILL DROP THE SCA FLAG THERE ATTM. MORE SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PICKING UP OVER THE WATERS AGAIN. ANOTHER SCA FLAG WILL GO UP AT 12Z WED AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA

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