Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 061403 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1003 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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930 AM ESTF: THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT COOL FRONT AT 13Z FROM NORTHERN VA THROUGH CENTRAL DE INTO EXTREME S NJ MAY SETTLE A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, ESPECIALLY DE WHERE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. 1330Z RADAR REALITY AND A PREPONDERANCE OF MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE FCST SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA NORTH. THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD BE N OF I-78 WHERE POPS WERE RAISED ANOTHER 20 PCT TO CATEGORICAL. THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THIS WEAK 850MB WAA BENEATH WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE SCT VCNTY KPHL BUT HEAVIER WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS S OF THE FRONT AND IN THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT OF ~1.3 INCHES. TSTMS THIS MORNING WEST OF KCXY AT 1330Z SHOULD DIE OUT AS THEY TRY TO ENTER THE KRDG AREA. THIS AFTN...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH NORTH AND THEN WE WATCH FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N MD AND POSSIBLY LEAK INTO MD`S E SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. NOT SURE IF ANYONE NOTICED YDYS MAX TEMP AT KACY WAS 1F SHORT OF THE RECORD FOR THE DATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD CLOSER, AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW IT MUCH LESS DEFINED AND REALLY NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR OUR REGION. THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE THINK IT SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A REXY LOOKING BLOCK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH SPLIT FLOW BEING THE MAIN PLAYER. CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFLUENT FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM...MONDAY ONWARD. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HAVE GONE DRY BOTH DAYS WITH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE`S AXIS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LACK OF A DEFINED LIFTING MECHANISM. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION, THOUGH NOT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE BUT DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER-50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS ...LOW-80S. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...EVEN WITH A DECENT SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING AROUND THE REGION, THE SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL/SUB- TROPICAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GIVES SOME PAUSE FOR CONCERN WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGES FOR BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW VEERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN HAVE PEGGED OUR WESTERN ZONES, WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIDGES FOR CHANCES OF CONVECTION. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN ZONES EACH MORNING WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAMP MARINE LAYER. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-80S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES...THERE WILL BE GREATER MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. GIVEN A SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AMPLE GULF/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS VCNTY KABE/KRDG/KTTN/PNE AND KPHL THIS MORNING. LIGHT NE WIND. TONIGHT...VFR CIGS. LIGHT MOSTLY NE WIND. THURSDAY...VFR CIGS. LIGHT EAST WIND TO START TRENDING S-SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND OUR EASTERN MOST TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVING WAY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS MAINLY N-NE TODAY WITH GUSTS REMAINING LESS THAN 20 KT. LIGHT ENE WIND TONIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY VARIABLE DE COAST. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...GENERALLY A SUB-SCA FORECAST WITH SEAS INCREASING A BIT UNDER A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .PREPAREDNESS...
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SAFE BOATING WEEK IS THE 16TH THROUGH THE 22ND. PSA`S WILL POST ON NWR AWIPS AND FB. THE BASIC INFO IS ALREADY ON OUR MARINE PAGE WITHIN THE SAFE BOATING ICON AND CAN BE EXTRACTED FROM THE DAILY LINKS. WE WILL ADJUST TWO OF THOSE PSA`S HERE. ONE OF IMPORTANCE FOR OUR OFFICE IS THE DIRECT OBSERVED WEATHER WEB LINK TO OUR OFFICE LISTED AS SUBMIT MARINE OBS. THAT LINK TAKES LESS THAN 1 MINUTE TO FILL OUT, USING WHATEVER INTERNET TECHNOLOGY YOU HAVE OUT ON THE WATER, INCLUDING SMART PHONES. THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR THOSE WHO MAY COMPLAIN THAT OUR FORECAST IS INACCURATE. IT IS YOUR OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE OUR AWARENESS OF OVERWATER INFORMATION, WHICH CAN IMPROVE OUR FORECAST. THE LINK HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM ANY QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT US. HURRICANE AWARENESS WEEK IS THE 24TH THROUGH 30TH RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 7-13. THIS ONE WILL HAVE PSA`S ETC AND CAN INTERVIEWS CAN BE SET UP. WE LOSE ABOUT 2/YEAR ALONG OUR NJ COAST... PREDOMINANTLY UNGUARDED BEACHES. IT IS OUR NUMBER 1 WEATHER RELATED KILLER. FOR SAFETY, DON`T RELY ON YOUR FAMILY MEMBER TO SAVE YOU. INSTEAD .. WHEN THE SWIM SEASON BEGINS, SWIM ONLY IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS! MORE INFO WILL BE SHARED IN EARLY JUNE. MEANWHILE, OUR SURF ZONE FORECAST BEGINS NEXT FRIDAY MORNING MAY 15.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1003 SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 1003 MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 1003 PREPAREDNESS...1003

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