Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 061235 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 835 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 820 AM EARLY ESTF: THE SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT COOL FRONT AT 12Z FROM NORTHERN MD THROUGH NORTHERN DE INTO S NJ MAY SETTLE A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY, ESPECIALLY DE WHERE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. 12Z RADAR REALITY AND A PREPONDERANCE OF MULTI MODEL GUIDANCE FCST SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 78 NORTH. POPS WERE JUST RAISED 20-30 PCT FOR SHOWERS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAA NEAR 850 MB. TSTMS THIS MORNING VCNTY KCXY SHOULD DIE OUT AS THEY TRY TO ENTER THE KCXY AREA. THIS AFTN...THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH NORTH AND THEN WE WATCH FOR HEAVIER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP N MD AND POSSIBLY LEAK INTO MD`S E SHORE LATE IN THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD CLOSER, AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW IT MUCH LESS DEFINED AND REALLY NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR OUR REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A REXY LOOKING BLOCK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH SPLIT FLOW BEING THE MAIN PLAYER. CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFLUENT FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM...MONDAY ONWARD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE GONE DRY BOTH DAYS WITH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE`S AXIS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LACK OF A DEFINED LIFTING MECHANISM. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION, THOUGH NOT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE BUT DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER-50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS...LOW-80S. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...EVEN WITH A DECENT SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING AROUND THE REGION, THE SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL/SUB- TROPICAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GIVES SOME PAUSE FOR CONCERN WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGES FOR BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW VEERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN HAVE PEGGED OUR WESTERN ZONES, WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIDGES FOR CHANCES OF CONVECTION. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN ZONES EACH MORNING WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAMP MARINE LAYER. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-80S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES...THERE WILL BE GREATER MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. GIVEN A SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AMPLE GULF/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CIGS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS VCNTY KABE/KRDG/KTTN. LIGHT NE WIND. TONIGHT...VFR CIGS. LIGHT MOSTLY NE WIND. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY - FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND OUR EASTERN MOST TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVING WAY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY - SUNDAY...GENERALLY A SUB-SCA FORECAST WITH SEAS INCREASING A BIT UNDER A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 836 SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 836 MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 836

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