Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 010102 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 902 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE AWAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING CANADA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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AS OF MID EVENING...SFC LOW PRES CENTER CONTS TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROF IS MOVG THROUGH ERN PA. SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP...MOSTLY RAIN ATTM...ARE MOVG THROUGH SE PA...NJ AND DELMARVA. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS PER HOUR. A FEW CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED OVER NJ INDICATING SOME INSTBY ABOVETHE SFC. FARTHER N... WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL SNOW REPORTS FROM THE HIGHER POCONOS OF GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. ALL PRECIP IS MOVG EWD AND SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE FAIR OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE SOME GUST WINDS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE FCST TO DROP TO THE LOW/MID 30S OVER NRN DELMARVA...HWVR THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON WAS POSTPONED UNTIL APRIL 11TH FOR THE DELMARVA, NO FROST PRODUCT CONSIDERATIONS UNTIL THEN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AROUND 10 MPH. 925 MB TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO AROUND 0C SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT AT LOW 50`S FOR PHL WITH QUITE A BIT LESS SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY. MET/MAV USED WITH MOST ELEMENTS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO APRIL`S FOOL JOKE HERE...LOOKS LIKE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SPRING- LIKE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL STOP RECHARGING ON CANADIAN COLD AIR AND UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RETURN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT RAIN WILL BE THE P-TYPE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WED NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WED NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU. THU NIGHT THRU SAT...A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND FRI. CHCS FOR SHOWERS INCREASE FROM THE W THU NIGHT AND THEN A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND MOVES ALONG IT ACROSS OUR AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE LOW DEEPENS RATHER STRONGLY...SO A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED. LIKELY POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ATTM. PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E SAT MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THU NIGHT THRU FRI AND THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SAT. SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY. FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE N/W MON AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. MON NIGHT AND TUE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS OUR AREA. FOLLOWED WPC POPS WITH MOSTLY CHC SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. AS OF MID EVENING...PRECIP IS MOVG ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY 04Z. PRECIP IS LIGHT AND IS JUST CAUSING OCNL MVFR CONDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER PRECIP ENDS BUT SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS WILL CONTNUE OVERNIGHT IN THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW MOVG OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, AS LATE AS 22Z FOR ACY. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN, MAINLY LIGHT AND END BY 04Z ACROSS THE REGION. POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL BE ADDED AS NEEDED TO THE TAFS. THE RAIN MAY END BY 02Z WEST OF PHL. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE RAIN ENDS TO VFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH VFR CONDITIONS. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...VFR EXPECTED. THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING..PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT. SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SEAS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING AFTER A PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SCA WIND GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BE AROUND FIVE FEET. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY. ALLOWING SCA TO EXPIRE AT THAT TIME. SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING...FAIR WEATHER. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THU AFTERNOON THRU SAT MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SAT AFTERNOON THRU SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA

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