Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 301628 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1228 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THOUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND MAY STALL OVER OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 12:30 PM UPDATE: TEMPERATURES HAVE COME UP NICELY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW MANY OF TO GET CLOSE TO 70 TODAY. ESN IS ALREADY IN THE 70`S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EVENTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS MAY JUST SEE HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS ARE ADVANCING TOWARD THE DELMARVA CURRENTLY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE DELMARVA. PREVIOUS: AN UPR LOW NR THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE SEWD WHILE A SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA CST WILL MOVE TO THE NE AND EVENTUALLY E. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WRT PRECIP PLACEMENT, BUT THE BEST CHCS LOOK TO BE OVER THE LWR DELMARVA AND THEN NWWD INTO MD AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS DO APPEAR TO BE DRY DURG THE DAY. THE GFS DOES CONTINUE IT`S WET BIAS, BRINGING SOME PRECIP UP HT I-95 CORRIDOR. IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THINGS DRY. WITH A GUSTY E TO NE WIND, DESPITE TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S, WITH CLOUD COVER WIT WILL FEEL COOLER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WILL BE ABOUT TO PASS OFF THE CST BY DAYBREAK FRI AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE SFC LOW TO MOVE EVEN FURTHER EWD WITH TIME. ONCE AGAIN, MOST, IF NOT ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LWR DELMARVA WITH MOST OTHER PLACES REMAINING CLOUDY AND DRY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COMPLEX PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH CUT-OFF, MID-LEVEL LOW INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE...FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEKND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THIS FEATURE, IT MAY STALL OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OVERALL...THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY...EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH HEAVIER PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE DELMARVA...AS WELL AS JUST HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING WITH A 2.0 INCH QPF BULLSEYE JUST OFFSHORE. ATTM...GENERALLY LIGHT QPF IN THE FORECAST W/AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER 0.5 INCH CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA. COULD CERTAINLY SEE PRECIP LINGER LONGER INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY IF THIS SYSTEM SLOWS A BIT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THERE WILL ALSO BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ALONG THE COAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. A COOL DAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SATURDAY...S/WV DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BACK- SIDE OF DEPARTING MID-LEVEL, CUTOFF LOW. THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH...SO -SHRA ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW NEARBY..CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED -TSRA...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS STABILITY INDICES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST. SUNDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED -SHRA...BUT NOT BUYING THE GFS QPF...WHICH APPEARS OVERDONE. MONDAY...ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH A DRY WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...COOLER NEAR THE COAST IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION...W/THE MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING PARALLEL TO THIS FEATURE...WHICH MAY STALL OVER THE REGION BY MID- WEEK. THIS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN POPS AND TEMPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THU THE DAY TODAY AND AT MOST SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AT KMIV AND KACY, SOME MVFR IS FCST TWD THE END OF THE PD. CONFIDENCE IS LWR THAN AVERAGE ON THE MVFR CONDS. AN UPR LOW NR THE GRTLKS WILL MOVE SEWD THRU TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED IN NC BY DAYBREAK FRI. A SFC LOW WILL FORM NR THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE NEWD THEN EWD. SOME PRECIP IS PSBL MAINLY S OF THE TAF SITES, BUT THE BEST CHCS WUD BE AT KMIV AND KACY. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE INDIVIDUAL FCSTS. A GUSTY E TO NE WIND WILL DEVELOP DURG THE DAY AND CUD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT. THE GUSTINESS SHUD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY LINGER AT KMIV AND KACY. OUTLOOK... FRI AND SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON FRI. SUN AND MON...VFR EXPECTED. && .MARINE... THE SCA HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNCHANGED AS NELY FLOW DEVELOPS AND INCREASES. THE WIND CUD GUST TO 30 KT AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7 FT. OUTLOOK.. FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY EVENING. SAT THRU MON...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA CRITERIA. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH THE FULL MOON ON SATURDAY, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES BY FRIDAY WILL ALREADY BE NEAR MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER. THEREFORE, DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TO OUR REGION, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, AND AT THIS POINT, THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. THE FURTHER EAST THE TRACK IS, THE LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...FRANCK AVIATION...FRANCK/NIERENBERG MARINE...FRANCK/NIERENBERG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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