Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 212354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
754 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
PATCHY CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT WILL BE TRYING TO CROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DEWPOINTS DROPPED A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST AND THAT WAS THE MAIN
CHANGE IN OUR 630 PM ESTF. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S NORTH/WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH/EAST.

ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE: ITS POSSIBLE A SPRINKLE WILL GRAZE THE
POCONOS LATER TONIGHT? WILL REEVALUATE AT 930 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT
THE AREA. AN AREA OF DEEP MIXING AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL GO WITH
HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE AREA. DECENT WINDS WILL
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE NUMBERS COME UP SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT
IT`S RATHER CLOSE. SMALL CHC FOR THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS
A MARGINAL SVR RISK FOR OUR DELMARVA AND SE/PA AREAS. SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO
THE MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION AND EXIT OFF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WE
SHOULD SEE A COOLER PUSH OF AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD THERE BE ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WE
COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME SNOW FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN WE HAVE HAD THIS PAST WEEK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS REMAIN
IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE KEEP A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW, AND THIS
WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. HIGHS
WILL RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION WITH SOME 40S
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. JUST HOW
FAR NORTH THE SYSTEM CAN PUSH TO THE NORTH WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR
NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
BIGGEST HINDRANCE WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. WE CONTINUE TO
MENTION SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
MAY MOVE ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A ROUND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT. LIGHT
WEST WIND BECOMING SW.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 6000 FT MAY BRIEFLY BE INTERRUPTED FOR
AN HOUR BY CIGS NEAR 4000 FT AND VSBY 3 MI IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS
IN THE 17Z-22Z TIME FRAME. GUSTY SW WINDS 25 KT AT 15Z INCREASE
TO 30-38KT BETWEEN 17Z AND CFP THEN WESTERLY GUSTY 25 KT AFTER
21Z. THUNDER IS IN THE TAF FOR KACY WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND
BEST TIMING WITH PRECFP HEATING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING, GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY IN THE MORNING, GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM KPHL AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA TONIGHT WAS REISSUED FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AND THEN CONTINUED AS
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY WHEN THE SW GRADIENT
BECOMES STRONGER PRIOR TO THE MID AFTN CFP. SEAS TONIGHT ARE VERY
VERY SLOW TO EASE BACK AND JUST HAD TO REISSUE WITH 7 FOOTERS STILL
AT 44065 AS OF 22Z.

SAFE BOATING WEEK MAY 16-22.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 5
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
OUR SURF ZONE FORECASTS START FRIDAY THE 15TH OF MAY AND A PNS WAS
ISSUED AROUND 554 PM ANNOUNCING THE NEW BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT
THAT WILL SUPPLEMENT OUR PRIMARY RIP CURRENT RISK PRODUCTS.

WMO HEADER   WHUS41 KPHI
AWIPS ID     CFWPHI

THATS THE HEADER

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT EXPLAINS IT ALL.

WE WILL BE ISSUING THE BEACH HAZARDOUS STATEMENT ON AN AS NEEDED
BASIS TO SUPPORT SURF ZONE SAFETY, BUT NO REDUNDANCY WITH OTHER
PRODUCTS. EMPHASIS FOR OUR OFFICE MAY BE ECOLOGICAL (RED TIDE) OR
WIDESPREAD AND ANOMALOUSLY COLDER THAN NORMAL WATERS, POSSIBLY A
RARE SQUALL LINE PRESSURE INDUCED SEICHE. THIS BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT
WILL BE EVOLVING OVER THE COMING YEARS AND WILL CONTAIN INFORMATION
THAT CANNOT BE FOUND IN ANY OTHER MOUNT HOLLY NON-AFD PRODUCT. IT
WILL NOT REPLACE THE PRIMARY METHOD OF INFORMING ABOUT DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS, AT LEAST NOT FOR THIS YEAR.

STATEMENTS FROM THIS PROGRAM COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE START OF
OUR MOUNT HOLLY SURF ZONE FORECAST PROGRAM, FRIDAY MAY 15TH BUT
LIKELY BE DELAYED.

THE RECENT COASTAL RESILIENCY WORKSHOP IN VIRGINIA WAS
INFORMATIVE AND CHANGES ARE COMING THE NEXT SEVERAL SEASONS BEYOND
2015. HOPEFULLY THESE CHANGES FURTHER IMPROVE AWARENESS OF THE
RIP CURRENT DANGER. THE OCEAN IS NOT YOUR CALM SWIMMING POOL.

EVENTUALLY PROBABILISTIC TIME OF DAY INFORMATION REGARDING RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE DEVELOPED AND VALIDATED BY OBSERVATION. THIS
WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BEACH BATHYMETRY, EVEN AS IT IS CONSTANTLY
ADJUSTING, AS WELL AS TIDAL RELATED TOTAL WATER LEVEL.

THERE WILL NO LONGER BE ANY ASSOCIATION OF RIP CURRENT RISK AND
SWIMMER SKILL. TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE BECOMING VICTIM TO RIP CURRENTS
NO MATTER WHAT SWIMMING SKILL LEVEL, IN LARGE PART DUE TO
SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED BEACHES.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 7-13. MORE TO COME HERE AND IN
POSSIBLE PUBLIC FORUMS.

SST`S DESPITE THE NEAR RECORD COLD WATERS OF FEBRUARY 20-MARCH 1
HAVE RECOVERED TO NEAR NORMAL AND ACTUALLY ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE, AROUND LONGITUDE 73W.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 754
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 754
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 754
RIP CURRENTS...754


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