Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 061741 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 141 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1230 PM ESTF: AT 130 PM THE COOL FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPTING MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE NEAR EASTON MARYLAND. MOST OF THE MEASURABLE SHOWERS ARE DONE NOW...HAVING FADED TO TRACE SPRINKLES FROM NORTH CENTRAL PA ACROSS THE POCONOS. TSTMS FORMING IN SOUTH CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PASS WELL TO THE SW OF OUR AREA LATE TODAY THOUGH ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE ONE DEVELOP THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ONTO MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE NEAR EASTON LATE IN THE DAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TSTM THREATENING THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD CLOSER, AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. VARIABLE CLOUD TONIGHT. A BIT COOLER. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/6 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS. THURSDAY...RIGHT NOW WE THINK IT SHOULD AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN MIDDAY CLOUD COVER. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/6 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A REXY LOOKING BLOCK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD, WITH SPLIT FLOW BEING THE MAIN PLAYER. CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT/OPEN UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFLUENT FLOW WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF ENERGY WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGTERM...MONDAY ONWARD. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HAVE GONE DRY BOTH DAYS WITH THE OFFSHORE RIDGE`S AXIS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LACK OF A DEFINED LIFTING MECHANISM. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION, THOUGH NOT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE BUT DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER-50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH FRIDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS ...LOW-80S. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...EVEN WITH A DECENT SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING AROUND THE REGION, THE SLOW NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COASTAL/SUB- TROPICAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST GIVES SOME PAUSE FOR CONCERN WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BOTH DAYS. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE RIDGES FOR BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. THE FLOW VEERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN HAVE PEGGED OUR WESTERN ZONES, WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE RIDGES FOR CHANCES OF CONVECTION. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN ZONES EACH MORNING WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND DAMP MARINE LAYER. TEMPERATURES EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-80S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES...THERE WILL BE GREATER MOISTURE, LIFT, AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. GIVEN A SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AMPLE GULF/SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. SPRINKLES POSSIBLE KABE TIL 19Z. NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 KT THEN DIMINISHES LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT MOSTLY NE WIND. THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT EAST WIND TO TREND SSE TO SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AROUND OUR EASTERN MOST TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST FLOW GIVING WAY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
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&& .MARINE...
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MWS POSTED FOR THE SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE OF DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE COOL FRONT ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE AOB 3 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY. NE THIS AFTN, LIGHT EAST TONIGHT AND SE ON THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...GENERALLY A SUB-SCA FORECAST WITH SEAS INCREASING A BIT UNDER A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK NEAR TERM...DRAG 142 SHORT TERM...DRAG 142 LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 142 MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 142

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