Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 252234 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 634 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST, PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THE RATHER DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INITIALLY COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET TO PRODUCE SOME ICE PELLETS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. THE POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT FASTER EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, NAMELY THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THEN REDEVELOPS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, IT`S ONLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, MAINLY OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES, WHERE WE DO HAVE SOME LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN THIS EVENING TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WE HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN NJ, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT. IT`S UP NORTH WHERE THE HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL OFF A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FROST TO FORM, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMIV AND KACY SITES IS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME. NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE SHORT TERM...KLINE LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.