Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 150043 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 843 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO CROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE SECOND OF THE TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, BEFORE A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF RAINFALL FROM SRN NJ HAS CREEPED BACK NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING VORT MAX AND SFC LOW CONSOLIDATING TO THE SOUTH. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT OF THE NORTHWARDMOVEMENT. THE SHIELD OF RAIN WILL STILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT...SO THE LATER PART OF THE FCST WAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH. CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE SRN AREAS TOWARD DAWN. TEMPS/DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR RECENT TRENDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... A NICE DAY SETTING UP EXCEPT WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES PROMOTING A RISK FOR ANY WILDFIRES TO SPREAD, PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER PORTION OF AFD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY. ONCE AGAIN THE ECMWF IS WARMER AND THE GFS COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE 925MB-SURFACE LAYER. THINKING IS THAT WE WILL WARM UP QUITE A BIT GIVEN THIS SUNSHINE CLOSER TO THAT ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF, 60`S TO AROUND 70. AN EXISTING PRESSURE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH STEEPING LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS WELL FROM THE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TIME. AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES ALOFT SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH, BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN SIDE AND INTERACT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO CREATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD GET HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH MAY HELP KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SECOND OF THE LOWS IS FORECAST TO BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS SLOWER, BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER BRINGING IT THROUGH SATURDAY. WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO WPC/CONTINUITY WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLES AND HAS THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MAY KEEP THE WEATHER DRY. HOWEVER, THIS MAY NOT LAST LONG AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS BEING DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE BEGIN TO LIFT THE FRONT, WHILE DEVELOPING A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURES ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE OBVIOUS TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES, BUT THEY BOTH INDICATE A WET PERIOD POSSIBLY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SRN TERMINALS. THE RAIN WILL MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY AN IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVER FROM NW/SE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NE SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NRLY BY DAWN. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ON WEDNESDAY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. MAIN CONCERN IS SCATTERED NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS FROM 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE GUSTS LEFT OUT OF TAFS ATTM. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR.
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&& .MARINE... SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. BY MIDNIGHT, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH FIVE FEET IN OUR SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS (SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CITY). THIS WILL CORRESPOND WITH SOME 25-30 KNOT GUSTS AS WELL IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND FIVE FEET INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE, WHILE SEAS WILL RISE SOME ACCOMPANIED BY 20 KNOT NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM. AN SCA CONTINUES FROM 06- 18Z WEDNESDAY ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 FEET OR MORE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... TOMORROW AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20-25% COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH. THESE FACTORS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED RISK OF THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES DEPENDING ON THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF FINE FUELS. FINE FUELS WILL BE MOISTER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION WHERE MORE RAIN FELL TODAY. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 MPH OR LESS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ453>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GAINES/ROBERTSON/O`HARA MARINE...GAINES/ROBERTSON FIRE WEATHER...

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