Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 220148 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 948 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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PATCHY CLOUDINESS BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT WILL BE TRYING TO CROSS E PA AND NW NJ LATE THIS EVENING BUT PROBABLY DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE: ITS POSSIBLE A SPRINKLE WILL GRAZE THE POCONOS LATER THIS EVENING. WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN THE FCST THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. MAYBE ITS THE SHOWERS NEARING KIPT AT 0140Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA. AN AREA OF DEEP MIXING AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE AREA. DECENT WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE NUMBERS COME UP SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM...BUT IT`S RATHER CLOSE. SMALL CHC FOR THUNDER WED AFTERNOON AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL SVR RISK FOR OUR DELMARVA AND SE/PA AREAS. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HIGHS WED WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION AND EXIT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WE SHOULD SEE A COOLER PUSH OF AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD THERE BE ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WE COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME SNOW FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE HAD THIS PAST WEEK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE KEEP A CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW, AND THIS WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AVERAGE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION WITH SOME 40S REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SYSTEM CAN PUSH TO THE NORTH WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THE BIGGEST HINDRANCE WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/CANADIAN MARITIMES. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY THE SOUTHERN AREAS. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 7000 AND 10000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND BECOMING SW. WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 6000 FT MAY BRIEFLY BE INTERRUPTED FOR AN HOUR BY CIGS NEAR 4000 FT AND VSBY 3 MI IN SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE 17Z-22Z TIME FRAME. GUSTY SW WINDS 25 KT AT 15Z INCREASE TO 30-38KT BETWEEN 17Z AND CFP THEN WESTERLY GUSTY 25 KT AFTER 21Z. THUNDER IS IN THE TAF FOR KACY WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND BEST TIMING WITH PRECFP HEATING. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING, GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING, GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM KPHL AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT BLENDS INTO A FULL BORE SCA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ESE 5-6 FT SWELLS ON THE ATLC WATERS ARE VERY SLOW TO DECAY AND SO THE HAZ SEAS ADVY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SAFE BOATING WEEK MAY 16-22. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25 KT DURING THE DAYTIME AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS...
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OUR SURF ZONE FORECASTS START FRIDAY THE 15TH OF MAY AND A PNS WAS ISSUED AROUND 554 PM ANNOUNCING THE NEW BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THAT WILL SUPPLEMENT OUR PRIMARY RIP CURRENT RISK PRODUCTS. WMO HEADER WHUS41 KPHI AWIPS ID CFWPHI THATS THE HEADER THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT EXPLAINS IT ALL. WE WILL BE ISSUING THE BEACH HAZARDOUS STATEMENT ON AN AS NEEDED BASIS TO SUPPORT SURF ZONE SAFETY, BUT NO REDUNDANCY WITH OTHER PRODUCTS. EMPHASIS FOR OUR OFFICE MAY BE ECOLOGICAL (RED TIDE) OR WIDESPREAD AND ANOMALOUSLY COLDER THAN NORMAL WATERS, POSSIBLY A RARE SQUALL LINE PRESSURE INDUCED SEICHE. THIS BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE EVOLVING OVER THE COMING YEARS AND WILL CONTAIN INFORMATION THAT CANNOT BE FOUND IN ANY OTHER MOUNT HOLLY NON-AFD PRODUCT. IT WILL NOT REPLACE THE PRIMARY METHOD OF INFORMING ABOUT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AT LEAST NOT FOR THIS YEAR. STATEMENTS FROM THIS PROGRAM COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE START OF OUR MOUNT HOLLY SURF ZONE FORECAST PROGRAM, FRIDAY MAY 15TH BUT LIKELY BE DELAYED. THE RECENT COASTAL RESILIENCY WORKSHOP IN VIRGINIA WAS INFORMATIVE AND CHANGES ARE COMING THE NEXT SEVERAL SEASONS BEYOND 2015. HOPEFULLY THESE CHANGES FURTHER IMPROVE AWARENESS OF THE RIP CURRENT DANGER. THE OCEAN IS NOT YOUR CALM SWIMMING POOL. EVENTUALLY PROBABILISTIC TIME OF DAY INFORMATION REGARDING RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE DEVELOPED AND VALIDATED BY OBSERVATION. THIS WILL TAKE INTO ACCOUNT BEACH BATHYMETRY, EVEN AS IT IS CONSTANTLY ADJUSTING, AS WELL AS TIDAL RELATED TOTAL WATER LEVEL. THERE WILL NO LONGER BE ANY ASSOCIATION OF RIP CURRENT RISK AND SWIMMER SKILL. TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE BECOMING VICTIM TO RIP CURRENTS NO MATTER WHAT SWIMMING SKILL LEVEL, IN LARGE PART DUE TO SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED BEACHES. RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 7-13. MORE TO RIP CURRENT INFORMATION TO COME HERE AND IN POSSIBLE PUBLIC FORUMS. REMAINING CALM AND FLOATING IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT WHEN BEING SWEPT SEAWARD...THEN ITS AN ATTEMPT TO SWIM OUT OF THESE NARROW SWIFT CURRENTS OF WATER...PARALLEL TO THE SHORE. RESEARCH IS DEMONSTRATING THAT MOST OF THESE CURRENTS EVENTUALLY CIRCLE BACK TOWARD THE SHORE. SST`S DESPITE THE NEAR RECORD COLD WATERS OF FEBRUARY 20-MARCH 1 HAVE RECOVERED TO NEAR NORMAL AND ACTUALLY ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL NOT TOO FAR OFFSHORE, AROUND LONGITUDE 73W. WE ATTM HAVE NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON SURF ZONE WAVE RELATED INJURY RESEARCH BEING CONDUCTED IN DELAWARE.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 947 SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 947 MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 947 RIP CURRENTS...947

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