Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 210548
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS THROUGH 2 AM.  AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
50 CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  NO OTHER UPDATES AT
THIS TIME.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FOR THIS EVENING.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS HAVE
AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY DROPPING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

CURRENTLY...

MODEST NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLD TO SCTD SHRA
AND -TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER TRRN AND WERE MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS. MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WAS NOTED OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION PER RADAR AND TOTAL LTG DATA. TEMPS WERE COOL AT 3 PM WITH
TEMPS IN THE U50S/L60S PLAINS AND 50S VALLEYS.

REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING....

ISOLD PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ISOLD...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH BIGGEST
CONCERN BEING CG ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...

ANY PRECIP OVER THE REGION WILL DIE BY LATER THIS EVENING IF NOT
EARLIER. HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE DO SHOW A TSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING UNDER THE MODEST NW FLOW. TEMPS WILL COO
INTO THE 30-35F RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 20S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER 70S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 60S VALLEYS. I DO EXPECT THAT WE
WILL SEE A PRECIP PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MTNS AND MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS. ACTIVITY
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST TOMORROW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER NO STRONG ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM IS ANTICIPATED WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS)...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTING CWFA FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT 06Z
WEDNESDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
06Z FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO OKLAHOMA BY 06Z SATURDAY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE CWFA DURING THE
MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE LONGER TERM MAY BE REALIZED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS) AS DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH UPPER IMPULSES TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED POTENTIAL CAPES/LIS AND BULK SHEARS VALUES OF -5C/1000+
J/KG AND 40 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY BOTH DAYS. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

IN ADDITION...HIGHER ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
AT TIMES WITH GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...AS BRIEFLY TOUCHED UPON
EARLIER...WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE
NOTED BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15 KTS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT TERRAIN
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KCOS AND KALS. ALTHOUGH ODDS LOOK FAIRLY
LOW THAT THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED...PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED ON MONDAY...SO WILL CARRY VCSH IN THE TAFS AFTER
20Z FOR BOTH LOCATIONS. KPUB IS LESS LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY ANY
PASSING SHOWERS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT


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