Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 041055
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
455 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA EARLY THIS MORNING...DRAWING A PLUME OF MOISTURE UP
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO THE ROCKY MT REGION. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
LTG WAS BEING DETECTED ACROSS AZ THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS SOME
STRIKES OVER THE TRANSPECOS REGION. AS FOR COLORADO...SPOTTY LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WAS STARTING TO FILL
IN...AND TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ AND NEAR THE 4
CORNERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE UP ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING SEEMS TO BE GROUPING ALONG THE PALMER DVD...AND HI RES
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AT THE MOST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY.
THEN...CONVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY BANDS OF RAIN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL QPF FORECAST RANGES FROM
HALF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH OF WATER FOR THE E MTS AND PLAINS FROM
THIS AFTN THROUGH 12Z TUE...WHILE THE SLV AND CONTDVD MAY SEE .2 TO
.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE SAME TIME FRAME. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS OVER THE FAR SE CORNER THIS
AFTN AND EVE...AND SPC HAS INCLUDED ROUGHLY FROM LHX AND EASTWARD IN
THE MARGINAL AREA. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
NIGHT...SO KEPT T IN THE WX GRIDS OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR
MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS POSSIBLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

...FORECAST CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TUESDAY...WITH BURN SCARS MOST AT
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...

UPPER TROF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
CO ON TUESDAY.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS TOWARDS THE 4 CORNERS
REGION AND LEAD IMPULSE ENTERS SOUTHERN CO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH A SECOND AREA OF FOCUS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND PIKES PEAK REGION TO THE NORTH OF A
NORTHWARD PROGRESSING WARM FRONT. IN FACT...H7 FLOW TUES MORNING
IS SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE AN ADDED UPSLOPE COMPONENT
FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND PARTS OF FREMONT COUNTY AND
WESTERN PUEBLO COUNTY TUES MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
MODERATE RAINFALL...WHICH WILL KEEP ALL EYES CLOSELY MONITORING
THE BURN SCARS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. QPF TOTALS ON THE
GFS LOOK OVERDONE THOUGH...AND LIKELY THE RESULT OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND .75 TO
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW TALL THIN CAPE PROFILES WITH LOW LCLS AND GOOD
SATURATION...CERTAINLY FITTING THE DEFINITION OF A POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAIN PROFILE.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...A SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AND A DRY LINE TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. IT IS ALONG THIS
FEATURE THAT STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DESTABILIZATION
TAKES PLACE. HIGH RES NMM AND ARW RUNS SEEM TO DEPICT THIS
POTENTIAL. NAM12 SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS IN 0-6KM
SHEARS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS OF AROUND 20 KTS...WHICH IS ON
THE LOW SIDE...THOUGH IF LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK A BIT MORE FROM THE
EAST...THEN THIS MIGHT INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEARS SUFFICIENTLY.
MAIN THREAT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE HAIL OVER 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH AND REALLY CAN`T ARGUE WITH THE CURRENT DAY
2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK DEPICTING A SWATH OF MARGINAL CRITERIA.
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING THE
PIKES PEAK REGION...THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM KEEPS RAIN GOING
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ACROSS TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES WHICH MAY LIMIT CAPES AND KEEP PRECIPITATION MORE
STRATIFORM IN NATURE. HOWEVER...AS STRONGER FORCING MOVES IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASES AS LAPSE RATES
ALOFT STEEPEN SOME...AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER...TALL THIN PROFILE
TO THE CAPE IN MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH BURN SCARS...PARTICULARLY WALDO...THE MOST
VULNERABLE. NOT TO BE LEFT OUT...THE WEST FORK COMPLEX WILL ALSO
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TUES AFTERNOON AS SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH (AROUND 11- 11.5KFT) THROUGH THE EVENT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...AND THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH FOR
THE EASTERN MTN BURN SCARS AFTER 03Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER. EVEN THOUGH
SNOW LEVELS STAY FAIRLY HIGH...HIGHER PEAKS COULD PICK UP AROUND
6-10 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. GIVEN THIS WILL BE MAINLY
ABOVE PASS LEVELS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES.

UPPER LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUES NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS.  SFC LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS DECREASE
SOME...THOUGH WITH MORE SUN...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM...WITH YET
ANOTHER UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CA ON
THURSDAY...THEN LIFTING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN FRI NIGHT AND ACROSS CO ON SATURDAY.  ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...THOUGH EC IS A TAD FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS CO ON SAT.  THUS WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND A FRONT.  ECMWF
KEEPS THIS FRONT A TAD FARTHER NORTH...WITH FOCUS MORE ACROSS EC AND
NE CO ON FRIDAY. THIS FAR OUT...DETAILS ARE BOUND TO CHANGE...BUT
WITH THE TREND TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE CONTDVD AND PIKES PEAK REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN A DRYING AND WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2015

A WET REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHED THE 4 CORNERS. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
LULL THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
THE E MTS AND PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAIN
AND STORM ACTIVITY...SO AFTER 18Z KCOS AND KPUB WILL LIKELY VARY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. KALS AND THE SLV WILL SEE LESS
INTENSE SHOWERS...SO INTERMITTENT VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THERE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE


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