Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 010519
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

...STORMS A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...CU FIELD HAS BEEN EXPANDING AT A GOOD CLIP THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER EL PASO COUNTY...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. SO...CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY STORMS IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME...THEN DISSIPATION AFTER
SUNSET. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW HUNG UP OVER NE CO WILL PUSH ACROSS
ERN CO OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LITTLE BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY.

TONIGHT...WILL SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN
PLAINS AS UPSLOPE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. THE MOST LIKELY SPOTS
FOR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE OVER EL PASO COUNTY...TELLER COUNTY...AND
ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND WETS LATER TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME SPOTTY DZ OR SHOWERS...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROM THE
PUSH TONIGHT.

WITH UPSLOPE IN PLACE...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...ROUND OF STORMS
FRI AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER THAN IT WILL
BE TODAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WALDO SCAR AREA IN PARTICULAR AS
HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF FOR THE PIKES PEAK
REGION ON FRIDAY. CAPE WILL BE UP TO ABOUT 1000 J/KG...WITH ABOUT 30
KTS OF SHEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY STRONG OR SVR
STORMS...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE FOR SOME CONCERN FOR
THE BURN SCAR AREAS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SOLID CHANCE OVER THE I-
25 CORRIDOR LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEG COOLER THAN THE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

SAT AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA BUT LATE IN THE DAY A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA.  SHOWERS AND TSTMS AREA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR AND NR THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING
ACRS THE SERN PLAINS IN THE EVENING HOURS.  HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN THE AFTERNOON IT LOOKS LIKE A
FRONT MAY HANG UP ALONG THE PALMER DVD...THEN MOVE THRU THE SERN CO
PLAINS LATER IN THE EVENING.  HIGH TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE ON SAT.

ON MON AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NRN BAJA CA OR SWRN AZ.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...MSTR WL INCREASE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LOW TO MID LEVEL SERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACRS SERN CO AND SFC DEW
POINTS LIKELY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S.  A BETTER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS.  MON NIGHT THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TO
SWRN NM OR SERN AZ BY 12Z TUE.  WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD GENERALLY DRY OUT MON NIGHT...WHILE THE SERN CO PLAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOIST CONDITIONS.  THE GFS IS MORE
HEAVY HANDED WITH THE PCPN MON NIGHT OVR THE SERN PLAINS THAN THE
ECMWF.  ON TUE THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVR
NM...WITH THE UPR LOW CENTER EXPECTED TO END UP IN SERN OR SOUTH
CENTRAL CO BY 12Z WED.  THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER MOVING THE LOW
EASTWARD THAN THE GFS.  WIDESPREAD PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUE AND
INTO TUE NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PCPN AMOUNTS THAN THE
ECMWF.  DURING THE DAY WED...THE GFS TAKES THE UPR LOW
NORTHWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE
THE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NE AND KS.  EITHER WAY...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED.

WHILE THIS UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA...TEMPS ALOFT REMAIN RATHER
WARM BUT TEMPS OVR THE HIGH MTN AREAS WL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PERIODS
OF SNOW AND THERE COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

THAT SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES FOR THU...BUT
ANOTHER UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EITHER SRN ID OR NRN NV.
CHANCES FOR PCPN WL CONTINUE ON THU...BUT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT THU APR 30 2015

COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF KPUB AT 05Z WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT BOTH KPUB AND KCOS BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH 07Z-09Z. A FEW
-SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND KCOS...THOUGH THREAT OF TSRA HAS ENDED
FOR THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...HRRR KEEPS MOST -SHRA ACTIVITY NORTH
AND EAST OF KCOS AFTER 06Z-07Z...SO WILL END ACTIVITY QUICKLY IN
THE TAF AND KEEP KPUB DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIGS WILL LOWER AT BOTH
KCOS AND KPUB BY 12Z...THOUGH WITH NORTH WINDS CONTINUING...IFR
STRATUS MAY STAY JUST NORTH OF KCOS AND JUST SOUTH OF KPUB...AND
WILL KEEP TAF CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE FOR NOW. AT KALS...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...CLOUDS SLOWLY
BREAK BY MIDDAY WITH TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
18Z...SPREADING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS 19Z-21Z. WILL KEEP A VCTS
MENTION IN ALL TAFS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS AROUND KCOS AND
KPUB...WHILE STORMS AT KALS WILL BE HIGHER BASED AND WEAKER.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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