Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 202118
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

CURRENTLY...

MODEST NW FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLD TO SCTD SHRA
AND -TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE HIGHER TRRN AND WERE MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS. MOST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WAS NOTED OVER THE SPANISH PEAKS
REGION PER RADAR AND TOTAL LTG DATA. TEMPS WERE COOL AT 3 PM WITH
TEMPS IN THE U50S/L60S PLAINS AND 50S VALLEYS.

REST OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING....

ISOLD PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TRRN WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS. ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ISOLD...WITH A BIT MORE COVERAGE EXPECTED
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH BIGGEST
CONCERN BEING CG ACTIVITY.

TONIGHT...

ANY PRECIP OVER THE REGION WILL DIE BY LATER THIS EVENING IF NOT
EARLIER. HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE DO SHOW A TSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING UNDER THE MODEST NW FLOW. TEMPS WILL COO
INTO THE 30-35F RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 20S IN THE VALLEYS.

TUESDAY...

IT WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
LOWER 70S MOST OF THE PLAINS...AND 60S VALLEYS. I DO EXPECT THAT WE
WILL SEE A PRECIP PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY IN THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MTNS AND MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS. ACTIVITY
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST TOMORROW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TOMORROW...HOWEVER NO STRONG ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM IS ANTICIPATED WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS)...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...PV ANALYSIS AND ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE
IMPACTING CWFA FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AT 06Z
WEDNESDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
06Z FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO OKLAHOMA BY 06Z SATURDAY AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF THESE METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN
COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES OVER THE CWFA DURING THE
MAJORITY OF THE LONGER TERM IN COMBINATION WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING WITHIN A CATEGORY OR SO OF MID TO LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE LONGER TERM MAY BE REALIZED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY(ESPECIALLY EASTERN SECTIONS) AS DEEPER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH UPPER IMPULSES TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED POTENTIAL CAPES/LIS AND BULK SHEARS VALUES OF -5C/1000+
J/KG AND 40 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY BOTH DAYS. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

IN ADDITION...HIGHER ELEVATION ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ANTICIPATED
AT TIMES WITH GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY FROM
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. FINALLY...AS BRIEFLY TOUCHED UPON
EARLIER...WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE
NOTED BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 318 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. VERY ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW EVENING AT KCOS AND KPUB. WINDS WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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