Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 290516
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1116 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

QUIET WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER COLORADO.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION.  HIGHER AREAS COULD PICK SEE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IN SPOTTY AREAS.  OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LOOK VERY
STABLE...AND ALTHOUGH HRRR IS PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF IN SPOTTY
AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC THAT THIS
WILL HAPPEN GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A CAP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS.  WILL
CONFINE POPS TO THE CONTDVD REGION FOR NOW.  ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  LEE TROF
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/I-
25 CORRIDOR.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS
IN THE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
70S FOR THE PLAINS...60S FOR THE VALLEYS...40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE STATE BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AS A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
EMBEDDED WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANY CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN MTS TO DIMINISH
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING ALOFT UNDER
THE BUILDING RIDGE. SOME INCREASED MOISTURE WITHIN THE INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
AND WARM AIR ALOFT HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND
80S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY 50S AND 60S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST MODELS ARE A TAD FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE PASSING WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...OWNING TO A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND A FEW POSSIBLE
SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE TAIL END OF THE PASSING WAVE TO
HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE MTS
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS SPREADING OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITHIN DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. FRIDAYS HIGHS TO BE SOME
5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL MINOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW LEADING TO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW COULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN
DRIVEN WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT/MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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