Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291012
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015

CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.  TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO.  THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY TIED TO THE TERRAIN.  LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.  ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015

...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

WESTERLY FLOW CONTAINING A PARADE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL
ESTABLISH A PATTERN OF DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ON THURSDAY...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND RIDGES...NAMELY THE PALMER AND RATON RIDGES.  PRIMARY THREATS ON
THIS DAY LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS LOOK A
LITTLE STRONGER...AND THERE IS SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AT TIMES.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS
IMPACTING BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PLAINS.  AND...BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL BE MORE SHEARED...HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO GROW INTO
STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW...THIS LOOKS MOST
LIKELY ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.  PRIMARY STORM THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD APPEAR TO BE
HAILSTONES AN INCH OR MORE IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR
MORE...IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL RATCHET UP A FEW NOTCHES.
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THEN...ON TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
BRINGING GOOD AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AS WELL AS EVEN MORE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  STORMS ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS IF THE RAIN FALLS OVER AN AREA THAT
CAN`T HANDLE THE RUNOFF...SUCH AS A BURN SCAR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER DAYS LIES AHEAD...ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND WARNING INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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