Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 012059
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
259 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

...STORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...
...WARM WEEKEND ON THE WAY...

LATEST HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION...AND ALONG WITH
OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A WAVE OF CONVECTION INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CLEARING I-25
BY 00-01Z THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS
OVER THE ERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THEN...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING INTO WRN KS BY 03Z OR SO THIS EVE. AFTER 06Z...PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS AND HYR TRRN. UPPER RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED AVA SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS THINGS THROUGH SAT MORNING.

TOMORROW...A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE...AS FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
ZONAL AND H7 TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 10 DEG C. EXPECT 80 PLUS DEG
TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...WITH 60S AND 70S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SPARK SOME AFTERNOON
STORMS MOVING OFF THE MTS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 30S CONVECTION WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS IT IS/WILL BE
TODAY...AND COVERAGE A BIT LESS AS WELL. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A RATHER WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED THE FIRST PART HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
ON SUN AN UPR TROF WL MOVE TO ALONG THE CA COAST...WITH MSTR AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROF IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  IT STILL LOOKS
LIKE A FRONT WL HANG UP ALONG THE PALMER DVD SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN
WORK ITS WAY SOUTH IN THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH OF THE AREA WL SEE AT
LEAST ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN AND SUN EVENING. HIGH TEMPS
ON SUN SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE BY ABOUT 5-10 DEG.

ON MON THE UPR TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN STATES...WITH AN UPR LOW
CENTER EXPECTED TO BE OVR SWRN AZ BY 00Z TUE. MSTR WL CONTINUE
STREAMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  OVR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LOW TO MID LEVEL SERLY WINDS SHOULD
HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCE ALONG AND ADJACENT TO THE ERN MTNS.
WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED ON MON ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.  THE
ECMWF AND GFS LIFT THE UPR LOW NORTHEASTWARD ON TUE.  THE GFS IS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW CENTER.  THE GFS HAS
IT IN NERN CO BY 00Z WED WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING IT OVR SERN CO.
EITHER WAY...WIDESPREAD PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE THRU TUE.

THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED...MOVING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY 00Z THU.  ALTHOUGH PCPN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME TUE NIGHT...THERE SHOULD STILL
BE PLENTY OF MSTR AROUND FOR AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WED AS THINGS REMAIN UNSETTLED.

TEMPS REMAIN QUITE WARM AS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVR THE HYR MTN
AREAS.  SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY NR THE ERN MTN...COULD SEE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN.

ANOTHER UPR LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN FOR
LATE THU AND FRI. THIS WL KEEP THE WX UNSETTLED WITH PROBABLY FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 02Z THIS EVENING...AS A
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF IFR-MVFR IN STRONGER CELLS DURING THIS TIME...WITH BRIEF
RA+ AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL GR. STORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
SERN CO PLAINS THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING ON INTO WRN KS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME PATCHY LOW CIGS OR BR COULD DEVELOP
VC KCOS OR KPUB AFTER 03Z TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT ANY IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
STORMS SAT AFTERNOON SHOULD NOT BER AS WIDESPREAD OR STRONG AS THE
STORMS TODAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE


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