Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 062146
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
346 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW PUSHING SLOWLY INTO WRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAKER SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS DRIFTING NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM NM. WITH LACK OF MUCH BL/SURFACE WLY FLOW AND
MOIST GROUND...DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND IN THE LOWER 50S FARTHER EAST NEAR THE KS
BORDER. MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPES OVER 1000 J/K
ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SKIES HAVE CLEARED...WITH VALUES 500-1000 J/K FARTHER WEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. STRONGEST STORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN OVER
EL PASO COUNTY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 AS OF 2030Z.

TONIGHT...LATEST HRRR BRINGS CONVECTION OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK NM
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH...WITH PERHAPS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE
DEVELOPING 00Z-01Z AS STORMS REACH THE KS BORDER. SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK...SO EXPECT MAINLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH CELLS
INTO THE EVENING. NAM/GFS END MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING...WHILE
HRRR DEVELOPS SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EL
PASO COUNTY 06Z-07Z. WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF POPS DURING THE
EVENING...KEEPING SOME LOW CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH A GRADUALLY SHIFT TO N-
NE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 BY SUNRISE WED. MAY SEE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EARLY WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
KS BORDER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER.

THURSDAY...OLD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WHILE NEW UPPER LOW TAKING SHAPE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS A
RESULT...BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
AREA...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE NM
EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE
THE ARKANSAS RIVER AND PALMER DIVIDE BY EVENING. BEST BET FOR STORMS
WILL BE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS AND
CAPES CLIMB TOWARD 1000 J/KG. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS FAIRLY LOW AS 0-
6KM SHEAR STAYS BELOW 40 KTS...THOUGH A COUPLE STRONG STORMS WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW...LIMITING STORM INTENSITY. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL JUST
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

...ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...

.FRIDAY...DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA AND
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE
REGION. CONCEPTUALLY...THIS PATTERN CAN LEAD TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE
WEATHER ON THE PLAINS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NAM HAS MORE COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING STABLE. THE GFS HAS THE
UPSLOPE FURTHER NORTH...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MIXING OUT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50. SUSPECT THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION OF HIGHER CAPE NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CURRENTLY SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS SEVERE CONVECTION STAYING EAST OF
COLORADO. THIS IS A GOOD CALL GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT WHICH
TENDS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS COLORADO.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE
NO SHORTAGE OF SHEAR AVAILABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE WEATHER. NAM
IS FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW AND IT HAS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR. MAIN CHALLENGE WITH NAM SOLUTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
GFS AND EC TEND TO BE FURTHER NORTH...AND ARE PREFERRED. THESE
SOLUTIONS WOULD TEND TO MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. CURRENT THINKING
IS THE BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE IN
KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION. ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. EC AND GFS STILL HINT AT THE TROWAL MAKING INTO EL PASO
AND TELLER COUNTIES. IF THE TROWAL REACHES THIS FAR SOUTH...THEN A
PERIOD OF SNOW WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR. LATER IN THE
DAY...THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EC HAVE A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH MODELS HAVE
NORTHEAST UPSLOPE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
PERIOD OF SNOW...AS SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 6000 FEET. GIVEN THIS IS
STILL ON DAY 4...DID NOT HIT THIS SOLUTION HARD IN THE GRIDS.

.MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. EC
AND GFS HINT AT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION...WITH CONVECTION NOT BEING
VERY STRONG. . --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA SHIFTING SOUTH FROM
KCOS TOWARD KPUB 22Z-01Z. TSRA WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE KS
BORDER 01Z-03Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME -SHRA MAY LINGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY 03Z-07Z. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AT KALS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 10Z THU MORNING...THOUGH WON`T
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS POINT AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY HINDER
FORMATION. ON THURSDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
TSRA ONCE AGAIN WITH BEST CHANCE AT KCOS AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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