Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 312151
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
351 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...

GENERALLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.  THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE APPARENT IN RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN YESTERDAY.  THE AREA OF BEST FOCUS SO FAR IS
OVER THE SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE THE MODELS HAD
SAID IT WOULD BE MOST ACTIVE.  EXPECT CURRENT TRENDS TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING...WITH A FEW CELLS POPPING OVER THE REMAINING
MOUNTAINS AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY THREATS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT
45 MPH.

WEDNESDAY...ALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE EAST. RED FLAG WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE VALLEY AND THE PLAINS NEARER THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE
PLAINS FARTHER EAST. INITIALLY...WASN`T GOING TO HAVE ANY
HIGHLIGHT OUT FOR THE FAR EAST. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS FOR THOSE
AREAS ARE COMING IN RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF NEEDING A HIGHLIGHT.
SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVING SAME ISSUE IN THERE ADJACENT AREAS.
SO...PER MUCH COLLABORATION THIS AFTERNOON...ALL CAME TO THE
CONCLUSION THAT...IN THIS CASE...THE WATCH WAS THE BEST WAY TO GO.
THIS WILL BRING HEIGHTENED AWARENESS TO THE SITUATION WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME GIVE LATER SHIFTS TIME TO MAKE THE APPROPRIATE
CALL...ONE WAY OR THE OTHER...REGARDING THE NEED FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING.

IN ANY EVENT...A GUSTY...LOW HUMIDITY DAY OUT THERE TOMORROW FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL BE HITTING IN THE 30-35 MPH
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE
MOUNTAINS...AND AT LEAST AROUND 25 MPH FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN MOST OF THESE AREAS
WILL AT LEAST BE IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE...WHICH IS WELL INTO THE
DANGER ZONE WHEN IT COMES TO FIRE IGNITION POTENTIAL.  FOLKS NEED TO
ABSTAIN FROM ANY KIND OF ACTIVITY THAT COULD CREATE A SPARK OR
FLAME.  THERE ARE BETTER DAYS FOR THOSE TYPES OF ACTIVITIES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PICK UP A LITTLE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.  THIS WAVE WILL ACT TO SUPPLY A BIT OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY LATE IN THE DAY THAT MAY TRIGGER A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
STORMS THAN WE`VE SEEN OF LATE.  COULD EVEN SEEN A LITTLE ACTIVITY
SPREAD OUT ONTO THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  PRIMARY
THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD HAVE A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW IN THEM AS WELL.
LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
10000 FEET...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN BELOW.

THE COLD FRONT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DOESN`T PUSH THROUGH
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO WEDNESDAY...ITSELF...IS STILL LOOKING
REALLY WARM...ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS REQUIRED IN REGARDS TO EARLIER LONGER TERM
FORECAST THINKING WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING POPS/POTENTIAL
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES.

A RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED
DURING THE LONGER TERM. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
PROJECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING IN COMBINATION
WITH ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES(PRIMARILY OVER NORTHERN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS) AS WELL AS COOLER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLORADO INTERACTS WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING
...FAVORING LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WFO PUEBLO WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY.

AT THIS TIME...RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED FROM
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING(PRIMARILY 5TH AND 6TH PERIOD)
WITH FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF
EXPERIENCING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.

WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH OF
THIS INCOMING SYSTEM CLOSELY AND ISSUE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
IF/AS NEEDED. ANOTHER METEOROLOGICAL CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK OVER MANY
EASTERN SECTION LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.

A RETURN TO BASICALLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS STILL
PROJECTED FROM SATURDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY AS ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PREVAILS AND INTERACTS WITH EASTERN
COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING. ONCE AGAIN...LOW-GRADE/ISOLATED
PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING.

OVERALL..COOLEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE ANTICIPATED
FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
ARE PROJECTED FROM LATER EASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FLIGHT AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FLOW IS GENERALLY DRY BUT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
WORKING INTO THE FLIGHT AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW ABOVE 10000 FEET. PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH. INCREASING WESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER FLIGHT AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 30-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING
KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ224-
226>233.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ234>237.

&&

$$



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