Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 032036
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
236 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
GENERALLY BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND SHORT LIVED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE AREA WL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND DECREASING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE NAM
SHOWING IT REACHING THE SRN CO BORDER EARLY MON MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT...SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE 40S...AND LOW STRATUS
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVR NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR...NSSL WRF AND NAM
CONTINUE TO SHOW PCPN BEHIND THE FRONT OVR EL PASO AND TELLER
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...WITH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEING DRY. THE HRRR SPREADS PCPN SOUTHWARD INTO
PUEBLO AND FREMONT COUNTIES AS WELL.

ON MONDAY AN UPR LOW BECOME CENTERED OVR THE CA AND AZ BORDER WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...DRAWING MSTR NORTHWARD.  WITH MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...KEEPING AFTERNOON SFC DEW POINTS ACRS THE SERN
PLAINS IN THE MID40S TO LOWER 50S. MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE AFTERNOON.  THE NAM SHOWS SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING IN THE MID MORNING HOURS OVR THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTDVD...WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
THRU THE AREA.  PCPN WL INCREASE ACRS THE MTNS BY MIDDAY AND WL
SPREAD TO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND THEN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACRS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE WL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...PORTIONS
OF THE SERN PLAINS COULD SEE ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH TEMPS ON MON WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE
JUST A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  HIGH TEMPS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...STORMY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...

MONDAY NIGHT...WILL SEE SEVERAL ONGOING ROUNDS OF PRECIP AND STORMS
OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE ERN
PLAINS...GENERALLY E OF KLHX...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER THE PALMER DVD.
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE AND INCREASED SHEAR DUE TO BACKED
LLVL FLOW...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SVR STORM OR TWO ESPECIALLY
IN THESE FAVORED AREAS. COULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP MON
EVE BEFORE PRECIP COVERAGE INCREASES LATER MON NIGHT...IN BANDS OF
CONVECTION ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD OR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE MTS AND PLAINS.

ON TUE...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THEN
TRACK TO THE NE DURING THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER...IN THE 60S
FOR THE PLAINS...DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE
MUCH OF THE BEST PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH EVEN
IF THERE ARE ANY BREAKS IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THEY SHOULD PICK
UP AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS MON-TUE WILL BE PRETTY
HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF QPF...COULD SEE SOME LOCAL
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS IN THE MTS OF SIX INCHES OR MORE...ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 12000 FEET. SO...RECREATIONISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF WINTER
CONDITIONS FOR THE HIGH PEAKS. GIVEN ALL THE PRECIP...THE BL SHOULD
BE PRETTY STABILIZED BY TUE SO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LOOKS
UNLIKELY. BUT...A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH NRN CO.

BY WED...SHOULD SEE THINGS WINDING DOWN AS THE FIRST UPPER LOW MOVES
OFF INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NE. WILL STILL SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP
OVER THE DVD AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY
BACK INTO THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DROP SWD FROM THE PACNW ON WED...THEN CUTOFF
OVER CA THU-SAT...AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NE OVER THE WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK TO OUR NORTH NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUNS HINT THAT
THE TRACK MAY BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF SE CO
WILL BE STUCK IN THE DRY SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW...BUT GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTIES WILL MAINTAIN POPS OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE MTS. TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
H7 TEMPS ARE MINUS THREE OR LOWER...SO SOME MTN SNOWS SEEM LIKE A
GOOD BET. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
LATE TONIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE AT KCOS AN MVFR OR IFR CIG WL DEVELOP
AS LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE AT KCOS INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. KPUB
COULD ALSO SEE SOME PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND MAYBE EVEN SEE SOME LOW
STRATUS MOVE INTO THE VCNTY...HOWEVER CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING
ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONCE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28


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