Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 232149
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
349 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

...STILL SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RIPE OUT EAST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE.  INHIBITING
FACTORS SO FAR...I THINK...INCLUDE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NOW AN EXPANDING HIGH CLOUD SHIELD FROM ELEVATED
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EARLIER.
BUT...CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE WOODS YET.  AS HIGHER LEVEL
CONVECTION WORKS EAST...IT WILL WORK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST
AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND ALSO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AVAILABLE.  THESE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  HI RES MODELS STILL DEPICT
THIS...EVEN THROUGH MID EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDE 1
INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS WITH A TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SPC IS CURRENTLY AT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND HOLDING. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE IN THIS STATUS FOR A FEW HOURS NOW.  ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.
CONVECTION WITH THIS NEXT WAVE IS ACTUALLY LOOKING A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN IT IS TODAY.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
DECREASED AS CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
AVAILABLE.  PRIMARY THREATS LOOK TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES BEING POPS(INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS) AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS
...METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS AND PV ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL
UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AT 00Z SATURDAY
SHIFTS INTO IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THEN BRIEF TRANSITORY UPPER
RIDGING MOVES OVER CWFA SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS PROJECTED TO BE CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA
BY 15Z SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE PROJECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION(INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CLOSELY.

THEN...DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS THIS EVENING WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ON FRIDAY...PRIMARY THREATS ALL AREAS
WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...SO WILL CARRY
VCTS UNTIL 02Z ALL 3 SITES.  THE SAME SCENARIO IS IN STORE FOR
FRIDAY SO VCTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED TO ALL 3 SITES FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$


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