Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 231757
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 738 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS A BIT DUE TO CURRENT CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER
MOST OF THE CWA...AND LIMITED LOW CLOUDS NR THE KS AND OK BORDERS.
LATEST SPC DAY ONE NOW HAS ERN CO IN SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HIGH BASED ROTATING
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

 ...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

CURRENTLY...A CALM NIGHT ACROSS SE CO. SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ARE MOVING THROUGH WRN AND NRN
PORTIONS OF CO. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SERN
PLAINS...BUT TRENDS AND OBS INDICATE THAT THE SPREAD OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AND NOT LIKELY TO GET AS FAR W AS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR...AS SOME EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED.

MAIN QUESTION TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS WILL YIELD CAPE OF 1000-
1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS INCREASING TO
AROUND 30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION. MULTICELLULAR MODE SEEMS MOST LIKELY...BUT A SUPERCELL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE E OF A LINE FROM LIC TO LHX
TO TAD. HAVE RAISED POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT CORRIDOR AS STORMS
DEVELOP INTO A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX AND SPREAD EWD INTO KS THIS
EVENING. IF STORMS BECOME SVR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO ONE INCH.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS
LIKELY HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR. AS STORMS CLEAR
EWD LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP NR THE
KS BORDER...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE WEST. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRI...PUSHING ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE DAY...THEN REACHING CENTRAL
KS BY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
-SHRA/-TSRA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES...THOUGH
WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS LOOKS LOW. PRECIP THEN ENDS OVERNIGHT FRI WITH SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING TROUGH. MAX TEMPS FRI LOOK LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THURSDAY`S READINGS.

STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN SAT...WITH
DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AZ BY MIDDAY SUN. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CO SAT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR A -SHRA/-TSRA FARTHER EAST.
NAM DOES HINT AT SOME STRONGER TSRA SAT EVENING OVER ERN/NERN CO
AS NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHILE GFS/ECMWF ARE LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND LOOK A LITTLE MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. SURFACE LOW THEN SPINS UP ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER SAT NIGHT...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NM DURING THE DAY
SUN. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA EARLY
SUN...GRADUALLY DEEPENING THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO
NM. TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUN INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE MON LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM MIDDAY SUN INTO AT LEAST MON
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST 24-48
HRS. AIR MASS WON`T BE PARTICULARLY COLD AS 700 MB TEMPS STAY IN
THE 0C TO MINUS 2C RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT...WHICH WILL
KEEP SNOW LEVEL FAIRLY HIGH WITH MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
ABOUT 8-9K FEET...THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AS LOW AS 6K FEET. SYSTEM THEN PUSHES EAST
TUE WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES MID-
LATE WEEK...BRINGING DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH. HOWEVER...STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS COULD
CONTAIN 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR/LIFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TRACK ACROSS ANY OF THE TAF SITES
TODAY...SO WILL CARRY VCTS ALL 3 TAF SITES STARTING AT
21Z FOR KALS AND KCOS...AND AT 22Z FOR KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW


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