Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241712
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR TODAY AND LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...LOW END LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER FAR E PLAINS EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...

CURRENTLY...

BROAD WEAK MID LVL TROUGH OVER ARIZ THIS MORNING. FEW ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER SW CO ATTM (3 AM). OVER THE
REGION...A WEAK SFC LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE SE PLAINS...AND SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS WRAPPED UP ON THE N END OF THE LOW AS
DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S TO L50S OVER THE NE SECTIONS OF THE SE
COLO PLAINS. SOME FOG WAS NOTED.

TODAY...

MID LVL TROUGH OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER SE COLO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP A LOW-RISK LANDSPOUT THREAT OVER
KIOWA...PROWERS...N BACA AND FAR E LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES FROM ABOUT
NOONTIME TO ABOUT 4 PM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS RELATIVELY COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SET UP VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A WEAK SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ONLY GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY
SE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY TSRA
THAT DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH/WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LANDSPOUT TORNADO AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN
ARE VERY LIGHT. THE MAIN DRAWBACK FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION IS IT MAY
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. THE
DEW POINTS OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY
CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE LOCATION OF THE WIND
SHIFT/SFC TROUGH AXIS.

OTHERWISE...PRECIP OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE ISOLATED AT
BEST...WITH MOSTLY A VIRGA WIND THREAT GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND ON THE PLAINS WILL BE WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY IS LOCATED AS
DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH. IN THE MTNS...BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SW MTNS AS SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TEMP-WISE IT WILL BE A VERY NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE L70S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS...WITH TEMPS IN AT OR
ABOVE 60 IN THE VALLEYS.

TONIGHT...

BESIDES SOME VERY ISOLD -TSRA EARLY THIS EVENING...IT WILL BE DRY
OVER THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 40-45F RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE
PLAINS...20S AND 30S VALLEYS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

...MAJOR SPRING STORM TO AFFECT OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY IN TRACKING AN UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN ON THROUGH CENTRAL NM SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE
EXITING E OF OUR AREA AND ON THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW CENTER THROUGH THE COVETED ABQ LOW
TRACK...AND WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUN INTO MON MORNING...WITH MDT TO HEAVY PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN MTS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHEREAS YESTERDAY`S
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE HAD AN EVEN SPLIT BETWEEN A GROUP OF LOW CENTER
TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN AND SRN NM...TODAY THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE IN NEARLY UNIVERSAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
CENTRAL NM. THIS LENDS STRONG CONFIDENCE TO HIGH POPS OVER THE
AREA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BARRING A MAJOR SHIFT IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT WINTER HEADLINES TO FOLLOW LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...WE WILL BE UNDER A SHORT WAVE RIDGE...TRANSITIONING TO
SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF SERN CO UNDER DRY SW FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY...SO HAVE MAINTAINED SILENT POPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS
SAT MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MILD...IN THE MID
70S...TEMPERED ONLY BY HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN WAVES OVER THE CONTDVD. A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT STORMS SHOULD
NOT BE SEVERE.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...THIS IS WHEN WE SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE IMPACT FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES OF QPF OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND ERN MTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO
ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW FOR THE MTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT RATHER HIGH INITIALLY...AND
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LOWER THAN 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE QPF SHOULD FALL SUN NIGHT...WHEN H7
TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO MINUS 2 OR 3...COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO
ABOUT 6500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVIER PRECIP. SO...EXPECT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. HIGHER ELEVATION CITIES
SUCH AS LEADVILLE...WOODLAND PARK...AND WESTCLIFFE SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS STORM...WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. TRAVELERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

THE OTHER NOTABLE THREAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
HGWY 50. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG
CAPE...AND BULK SHEAR WILL BE RUNNING 40-50 KTS. LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WITH A GREAT DEAL OF LOW
LEVEL HELICITY A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE A POTENTIAL
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL PRETTY SKETCHY THIS
FAR OUT.

THIS STORM COULD ALSO THREATEN THE WALDO CANYON AREA AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FALLING TEMPS WILL HELP MITIGATE THAT
CONCERN BY SUN EVENING.

MONDAY...THE STORM PULLS AWAY IN TO THE TX PANHANDLE...LEAVING SOME
WRAP-AROUND PRECIP OVER SE CO WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SE
AND OUT OF OUR CWA. A STRONG RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE ROCKIES AND LEAD TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE END OF APRIL.
HOPEFULLY THIS STORM WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS A LATE BOOST IN SNOWPACK
TO MITIGATE THE DROUGHT AND LATER FIRE WX CONCERNS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH MOST STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW STORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...COULD BE A LITTLE
MORE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
HAIL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2...MAINLY
ABOVE 8500 FEET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR.  HOWEVER...
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT
ANY OF THE 3 TAF SITES. WILL CARRY VCSH STARTING AT 20Z FOR
KCOS AND KALS...AND AT 21Z FOR KPUB. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES.
WILL BE MONITORING FOR BLOWING DUST AS WELL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW


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