Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 061231
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
631 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO THIS MORNING IN
AREA OF WRAP AROUND. ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST CO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL
WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW...WITH PRECIP WATERS
STILL RUNNING AROUND .50 TO .75 OR A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH COVERAGE
GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS...AND COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED
AND DECREASING WITH TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN.

WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...WHILE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
KICKS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DROPPING
BACK DEW POINTS.   THUS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
SEE ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  DEEP
LAYER SHEARS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG TODAY (20 KTS OR SO)...BUT
WHERE DEW POINTS STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...CAPES COULD APPROACH
800-1000 J/KG OR A LITTLE BETTER.  IRONICALLY...WITH THE GROUND
SATURATED ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND LITTLE ROOM FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...TODAY MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A HIGHER THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS THAN YESTERDAY.  THE TROUBLE IS THERE IS
JUST NOTHING TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS UP THAT WAY TO SUGGEST A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE NECESSARY.  AND SUSPECT THAT CAPE VALUES ACROSS
TELLER COUNTY SHOULD DROP OFF BELOW 500 J/KG AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES.  THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGHER AND LOWER POTENTIAL CAPE VALUES MAY BE RIGHT ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR...FAR ENOUGH EAST TO MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
ON THE WALDO BURN SCAR AS THUNDERSTORMS OUT THAT WAY START OUT
HIGHER BASED.  BUT BLACK FOREST BURN SCAR COULD STILL BE UNDER THE
GUN.  GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE TO THUNDERSTORMS AS SUGGESTED IN
THE VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS...NO PLANS TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS
POINT.  THAT SAID...IT IS THE SEASON WHERE ALL AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WHEN IT COMES TO BURN SCARS.

ELSEWHERE...COULD SEE SOME SMALL HAIL AND OF COURSE LIGHTNING WITH
STORMS TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW.
HIGHER PEAKS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SPOTTY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 11000 FEET.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.  KEPT SOME ISOLATED POPS ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS
AS SOME WEAK FORCING FROM THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROF ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF CA WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...FRONT WILL MAKE A GRADUAL PUSH INTO SE CO
AFTER 06Z...AND COULD SPREAD SOME STRATUS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  KEPT
TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THE PLAINS...BUT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MT VALLEYS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TONIGHT DUE TO LESS
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. -KT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

...WET WEATHER CONTINUES...

ACTIVE WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT COLORADO.

THURSDAY...A WEAK PREFRONTAL SURGE THU MORNING WILL LEAD TO MODEST
UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS. EXPECT ISOLD CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING TRRN.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NE CO...AS A COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO ADVANCE SWD. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS N OF HGWY 50...BUT BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE IN KS AND FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD LIMIT SVR
POTENTIAL. FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE OVR THE PALMER DVD BY 03Z OR
SO...AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FOR THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AND NRN I-25 CORRIDOR.

FRIDAY STARTS OFF ON THE WET AND COOL SIDE AS EARLY MORNING PRECIP
AND CLOUDS WILL STUBBORNLY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SE PLAINS. THE
PIKES PEAK REGION AND NRN I-25 LOOK FAVORED FOR PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN THE 40S
OR HIGHER...AND SHEAR AT 50 KTS OR MORE...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION BUILDS OVER THE
ERN MTS. HOWEVER...THE ERN PLAINS LOOK HIGHLY CAPPED AS SW
OVERRIDING FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM.
SO...WILL KEEP POPS LOW OVER THE ERN PLAINS...AND CAPPING COULD
POTENTIALLY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA E OF I-25 CORRIDOR DRY. A STRONG
TO SVR STORM COULD DEVELOP W OF I-25...BUT GETTING STORMS TO SURVIVE
IN THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST WILL BE A STRUGGLE.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE UPSTREAM LOW.
THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWN THE GFS AND EC THAT THE LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH CENTRAL AND THEN NE CO. THE
00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE MORE SRLY TRACK. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY CLOSE TO THE OP SOLUTIONS...WITH ONLY ONE OR
TWO MEMBERS FAVORING THE SRN TRACK. SO...THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN A TRACK THAT WILL SPARE MOST OF OUR AREA THE STRONGEST
IMPACTS. BUT...STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE LOW EVOLVES.
GOING WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...ON SAT THE TRIPLE POINT WILL SHIFT
INTO NE CO AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SVR WX WILL BE.
NEVERTHELESS...WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN AND STORMS ACROSS SE CO. THEN...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NE CO...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SWD ACROSS THE PALMER SUN
MORNING...WITH H7 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS 3-4 DEGREES BY SUN
MORNING. THIS WOULD POSSIBLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON THE PALMER
GIVEN THE MORNING TIMING...AND IT WOULD BE WIND DRIVEN AND HEAVY.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THIS WEEKEND. RAW...DAMP CONDITIONS
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND WE GET
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER THE ERN PLAINS. A RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS BY
TUESDAY AND DRIES US OUT AND WARMS US UP. ALL TOLD...LOOKS LIKE A
REALLY BIG DENT IN THE DROUGHT FOR SE CO...GOOD NEWS FOR THAT AREA.
ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST SURFACE LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GROUND
FOG FORMATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDINESS AND A TREND TOWARDS WESTERLY WINDS FOR
THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL DECREASE THIS THREAT AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. KCOS WENT DOWN IN LIFR AROUND 08Z...AND CAN`T RULE OUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF THAT UNTIL WINDS SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH LATER
THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY...CONDITIONS SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR
AROUND THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE TIME WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECK
PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND KCOS WILL STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA AT THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY AT KALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY AT
KPUB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH LOCATIONS COULD
SEE GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. KCOS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.
THREAT FOR -TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AT
10-15 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...KT



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