Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 160523
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1123 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITIES ARE STILL QUITE LOW...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA
IN MOST AREAS. CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED TO AVOID ACTIVITIES
INVOLVING SPARK OR FLAME. FRONT END GRIDS HAVE BEEN REINITIALIZED
WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

ADJUSTED SKY COVER THROUGH TONIGHT AND REINITIALIZED FRONT END
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

CURRENTLY...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH HAVE COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  TEMPERATURES ARE
WARM WITH 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS.  CUMULUS HAVE ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
HOWEVER RADAR REMAINS QUIET.

REST OF TODAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN
UTAH.  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE DONE WITH EXTREME
CAUTION. IN ADDITION...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS...THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES.  ALL HIGH-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL.  THE MAIN THREAT PERIOD WILL BE
BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM...FOR DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT INTO WESTERN
KANSAS.  THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH BY MORNING.  A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MODELS DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES.  GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH PEAKS
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

THURSDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN.  THE NAM/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS THE OUTLIER.  ALL MODELS HAVE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION  THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHWARD OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  AT
THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WITH A WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH.  MODELS VARY
IN WHERE THE DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW...WITH MOST HAVING IT SET UP
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING.  THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR LIMON AND THE FRONT IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.  THE HIGH-RES MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE
MORNING AND SPREADING IT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW...AND SOUTHERLY OVER RUNNING FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50.  SOME HIGH-RES MODELS PROVIDE A FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TELLER AND EL PASO COUNTIES...AND WE NEED TO
MONITOR THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF
RAINFALL RATES BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH.  SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ABOVE 8 THOUSAND FEET.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BUT SHEAR WILL BE THERE.  IF STORMS CAN
GET GOING OVER BACA COUNTY...THEY WILL ROTATE WITH STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL TORNADO THREAT IF
LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS CAN BECOME LOW ENOUGH OVER BACA
COUNTY. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH RESULTING QPF IS SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE 4
CORNERS THU NIGHT...AND THEN OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HRS IT WOBBLES
DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE BEFORE OPENING UP AND EXITING THE SE CORNER
LATE SAT NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS OF ANY PCPN...AND SNOWFALL...WILL BE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MODELS ARE PERSISTING IN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MTS. ONGOING WINTER STORM WATCH LOOKS
GOOD...AND MAY GO THROUGH SOME ADJUSTMENTS WHEN UPGRADED TONIGHT OR
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE ADDED TO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTS ZONES. LOOKING TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AS THIS LOW SPINS OVER THE STATE THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A
DRY SLOT SWEEPING ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS. THEREFORE...TONED DOWN
POPS THERE ON FRI JUST A BIT...BUT ALSO INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AS SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS SHOW CONVECTION PUSHING BACK
WEST OF THE CO AND KS STATE LINE FRI AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BOTH DAYS...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PASSES TO
THE EAST...NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS IMPLY THAT A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL TRACK DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO WY
AND CO...PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ESSENTIALLY EVERY DAY. TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL AND MILD SIDE BOTH
SUN AND MON WITH MAX TEMPS RIGHT AROUND 60F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
TRANSITORY RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE DESERT SW STARTING
TUE...LOWERING PCPN CHANCES AND HELPING TO BOOST MAX TEMPS FOR THE
PLAINS BACK INTO THE 70S. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT WED APR 15 2015

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. WINDS
MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY EARLY THURSDAY...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN BY
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG FROM THE N TO NE THROUGH
THE EVENING. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE TIED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT WILL SPREAD TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN BANDS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MODT
TO HEAVY PRECIP COULD OCCUR FIRST AT KPUB AND THEN SHIFTING NWD TO
KCOS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH IFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 6500 FEET TO 8000 FEET
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. AT KALS...STEADY OR HEAVY PRECIP NOT AS
LIKELY BUT COULD SEE PERIODS OF SCT SHRASN THOUGH THE DAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058-060-072>075-080-082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



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