Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 050720 RRA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 320 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED APART. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST ACROSS OUR REGION...MAINTAINING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 8KTS. NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION WOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUITY TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. ANY CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN WILL BE FUELED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. THUS EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY. LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIKELY STALL AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT AS IT TRIES TO SLIP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING BERMUDA HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WHICH WILL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...NEAR THE NC-VA STATE LINE WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS WILL LEAVE OUT ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS...HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TAD WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 247 AM TUESDAY... THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE TROUGHING OUT WEST. HOWEVER... MODELS STILL LIKELY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THAT WOULD DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST MODELS KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXCLUSIVELY. HPC CONTINUED TO FAVOR A BLEND OF THE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS TO ENSURE CONTINUITY OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THIS IS ACCEPTED AS THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR OUR LATE WEEK FORECAST. OUR CHANCE OF RAIN MAY END UP MOSTLY COMING FROM A SCATTERING OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FOCUS ALONG OR NEAR THE EXPECTED BACKDOOR FRONT THURSDAY AND THEN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION... SOME MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY COME INTO PLAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE - BUT THE DETAILS CONTINUE SKETCHY AT BEST. UNTIL THAT PROCESS IMPROVES... WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME 60+ BY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NOW WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EACH DAY. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 60-65. HIGHS 78-85. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION. DIURNAL CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 8KT. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT AND THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL WITH LITTLE TO NO AVIATION IMPACTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS HIGH WITH THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF WEAK FLOW OFF THE SE COAST WHERE IT COULD MEANDER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVERSE AVIATION IMPACTS LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...CBL

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