Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 060637 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 230 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 1050 PM TUESDAY... A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BEAT...IN A PERSISTENT REGIME OF LOW TO MID LEVEL (SUB-TROPICAL) RIDGING EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CAROLINAS. 10 PM TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE OF MON...AND WITH SIMILAR PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BY 12Z WED...SUSPECT LOWS WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE TUE MORNING ONES. THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO NIGHTS WILL BE A SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN DEFLECTED WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CAROLINAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER VORT MAX OVER THE NE GOM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE U.S. AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE BIGGER FEATURE WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT OVER CENTRAL NC BEING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE SE AND AN INCREASE IN AFT/EVE WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFT/EVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL NC. WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS... AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA... EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND SOME WEAK WAA...LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WITH POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIALLY SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF/NEAR THE COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... WITH MOST MODELS CURRENTLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR THE NORTHERN SC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... THEN MEANDERING AROUND THE NC/SC BORDER REGION INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT. HOWEVER... THE LOW HAS YET TO DEVELOP AND IT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BECOMES HIGH. NOT SURPRISINGLY... THE QPF OF THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE NOT ONLY WITH AMOUNTS (A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO SEVERAL INCHES)... BUT WITH PLACEMENT (RANGING FROM SC OR SOUTHERN NC TO OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM). THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HIGHLIGHTS MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FRI-SUN. AFTER THAT... EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY... BEFORE DRYING AND COOLING CONDITIONS ARRIVE MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 125 AM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAHAMAS/OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING PERIODS OF BROKEN CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. LOOKING AHEAD: THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL COME LATER IN THE WEEK AND/OR INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TRACK/LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...POSSIBLY MEANDERING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVERSE AVIATION IMPACTS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NC. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...CBL

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