Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260650 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 245 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSSES THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 245 AM SUNDAY... NEXT FEW HOURS... REGIONAL OBS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER...WITH ALL OF CENTRAL NC WELL WITHIN THE STABLE CAD AIRMASS. TO OUR WEST...AND MCV AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND APPROACHES THE STABLE AIR...BUT THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SOME RECOVERY OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...AS MUCH AS 500- 1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE... WITH THE INSTABILITY EVENTUALLY BEING SHUNTED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTH...UP TO 40KT. WHILE THE INVERSION IS LIKELY TOO STRONG FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...SOME REINVIGORATION OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS ALONG THE FRONT...MAY PROVIDE A THREAT OF HAIL THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. TODAY... ONCE THIS CONVECTION MOVES EAST...MODELS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AND 850MB FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HELP TO WEAK THE CAD INVERSION AND ALLOW SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR ALSO FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE MAY LINGER THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE ONLY SEE A NEED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. HIGHS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BREAK IN THE CLOUDS BOTH ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH...THOUGH MORE SO IN THE SOUTH. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE SOUTH AND MID 50S IN THE NORTH. TONIGHT... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THE DRIER STABLE AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION. OVERCAST SKIES MAY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH NORTH-TO-SOUTH. IF THIS CLEARING TREND DOES OCCUR OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE POCKETS IF DENSE FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY... UPDATED SHORTLY...
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY... A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH A SERIES OF S/W DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NC ON MONDAY. HOWEVER... CENTRAL NC WILL BE REMOVED ENOUGH FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE... SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... WITH PERHAPS JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL NC). THUS... EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK... GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: UNCERTAINTY STILL REIGNS SUPREME IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT/LIFT NORTHEASTWARD... SLOWER THOUGH ON THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO HAVE RAMIFICATIONS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SURFACE PATTERN AND POP/TEMP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA AND TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOW THESE LATTER TWO FEATURES INTERACT OR DONT INTERACT WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN DETERMINING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF ALLOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM OPENING MID LEVEL LOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA... WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND AMPLIFYING THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINA HELPING TO DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW WITH GENERALLY WET AN COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE... THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA...WHICH HELPS TO DRIVE THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA FASTER... THANKS IN PART BY THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF THE CURRENT MID/UPPER LOW NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH RESULTANT WARMER TEMPS... YET STILL GENERALLY SIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED A CLOSE TO WPC... KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AN IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND BRING A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM THROUGH 12Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KRCZ TO KFAY...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 12Z...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE AFTER AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF VFR OF CONDITIONS IS LOW...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...22

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