Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 041742 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 140 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY... A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT INITIATED SOME PATCHY MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THAT HAVE DRIFTED EAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE/850MB HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE NC COAST EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS SC THIS MORNING...LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS NC...THOUGH PW HAS CREPT UP TO AROUND 0.75" PER 12Z KGSO RAOB. DEEP MIXING TODAY AROUND 6500 FT...AND WARMING ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF CENTRAL NC WELL-CAPPED. MOST CAMS SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY 18Z...DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST IN WEAK WESTERN STEERING FLOW. ITS STILL VERY QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL REACH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE DRYING OFF AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN THE PIEDMONT. AS SUCH...WILL FOCUS ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY FROM FORSYTH DOWN INTO DAVIDSON COUNTY AFTER 20Z. THE 12Z KGSO THICKNESS (1000-850MB) VERIFIED 11M WARMER THAN SUNDAY...SO FORECAST HIGHS 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY LOOK GOOD...79-83 NO OTHER CHANGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM MONDAY... GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MIXED LAYER TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS NOT AS DEEP AS TODAY AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY...STILL BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION REACHING CENTRAL NC IS LIMITED. THE FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD DEPTH IS WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY SUGGESTING CONVECTION MAY HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING EAST AND IN FACT MAIN DRIFT SOUTH OR REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL OMIT POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND A FEW SREF MEMBERS SUGGEST SOME SHALLOW STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LOWS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 79-84 RANGE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. -BLAES && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 220 AM MONDAY... MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST STILL CLOUDED BY POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT... THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXPECTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN STATES... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF CAMPS STILL EXIST ON THE POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TRENDS OF RECENT GFS RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE GEFS/ECENS/CANADIAN ALL FAVOR AT LEAST A MORE WESTWARD POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE... WHILE AT LEAST THE 12Z/03 ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL/UKMET LIE FARTHER EAST. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS ACTUALLY PULLS THE LOW PRESSURE WELL WESTWARD AND INLAND OVER SC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HPC CONTINUED TO FAVOR USING THE ENSEMBLES WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND KEEPING THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AND HAS INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM... IF IT DEVELOPS... MAY HAVE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FARTHER NORTH THE SYSTEM TRACKS... THE LESS IN THE WAY OF TROPICAL SUPPORT IT WOULD HAVE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. OBVIOUSLY... THE ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL GO A GREAT WAY IN DETERMINING IF OUR REGION WILL GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. FINALLY... THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE AND POSSIBLY THE MID/UPPER SOUTHEASTERN US CUT OFF LOW MAY FINALLY GET A BIT OF A KICKER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST FINALLY PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST INCREASING OUR SW FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS... WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK. LOWS LATER IN THE WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 60 OR EVEN 65. HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 140 PM MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE EXTENDS INTO OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM (AND SOME ARE ALREADY FORMING) ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE SHOWERS TO VERY FAR TO THE EAST...BUT SOME HI- RES MODELS SHOW A COUPLE SHOWERS NEAR KINT AFTER 20Z. EVEN SO...THE IMPACTS WILL BE SMALL IF ANY AT ALL...SO HAVE JUST INCLUDED A VFR TEMPO AT KINT FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z ON TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO VIRGINIA BY WEDNESDAY...THEN LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AS A COASTAL LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...BLAES/22 SHORT TERM...BLAES LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...22

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