Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 021507 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1105 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1105 AM SATURDAY... THE LAST OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAILING THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST IS DROPPING SSE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. IT`S EARLY AND POOR TIMING DIURNALLY...ALONG WITH STRONGLY CAPPED AND DRY RAOBS FROM KGSO/KMHX (PW DOWN NEAR HALF AN INCH)...SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...WILL USE DRY ADIABATIC MIXING FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP MIXING THROUGH 850MB...WHICH YIELDS 73-76 NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A DEGREE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON NEWEST GUIDANCE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD YIELD SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE AREA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AMIDST MINOR H5 RISES... WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED ALOFT. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80S. LOWS 50-55. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY... EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WITH BROKEN STRATOCU DECK BETWEEN 4-5KT BY THE AFTERNOON...OWING TO SATURATED SOILS. ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED/ SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LIMITED COVERAGE WILL OMIT ANY MENTION IN TAFS. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL/22 SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL

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