Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 030521 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 122 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY... AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED WITH A MINOR S/W CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY... A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT. ANOTHER BENIGN DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY... WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA (PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN FRI-SAT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 122 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD TO KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...CBL

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