Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 021733 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1250 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY... THE CU FIELD BLANKETING MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...AND IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ISN`T BRINGING MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT AND SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BE MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOWS COMPARABLE TO LAST EVENING GIVEN A LITTLE MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW....MID/UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND AROUND 50 IN URBAN AREAS. WHILE GUIDANCE ISN`T INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG GIVEN RECENT RAIN. WILL JUST INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY... A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT. ANOTHER BENIGN DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S BY TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OVER OUR REGION AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SHOW INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY MID 80S EXPECTED (POSSIBLY TEMPERED SOME IN THE EAST GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER) AND UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1250 PM SATURDAY... SCT TO BKN CU AROUND 5K FT HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC TODAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WELL ON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRWI...BUT IT WOULD BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT PARTICULARLY HEAVY. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT MAY ADD A LITTLE EXTRA HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE JUST EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...22

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