Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 011434 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1034 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER AND JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY... AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE LOW AND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT... AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY... THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED AS IT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. AN UPPER LOW WITHIN A LARGER POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING OVERHEAD...AND THE MAIN LOBE OF STRONG VORTICITY RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT BATCH OF RAIN IS SHIFTING MORE TOWARD SC AND SOUTHEAST NC. MORNING OBS ANALYSIS SHOWS ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LOW THAT WILL ROTATE OUR WAY THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 30-35KT OF 850MB FLOW THAT WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SPC TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES ARE STILL RELATIVELY STEEP WITHIN THE UPPER LOW...WITH AN AXIS AREA OF NEAR -7C STRETCHING FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE AREA....SO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE WIDESPREAD AND CONTINUED FEED OF RAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL LIKELY INHIBIT WARMING MORE THAN YESTERDAY. THUS...EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED EAST OF US 1. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME DEEPER CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AFTER 18Z...AND WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL BELOW 6K FT ON THE KGSO RAOB AND THE -10C TO -20C LAYER CENTERED AROUND 15K FT...SOME SMALL HAIL CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY SEEMS VERY LOW AT THIS POINT. CURRENT TEMP FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE WITH LIMITED WARMING...STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP MOVES OFF TO THE EAST....WITH UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO SOME MID 60S SOUTHWEST.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM FRIDAY... TONIGHT: EXPECT SLOW CLEARING WITH MODEST BUT DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NNW WHILE 950-850 MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NNE... ALLOWING ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SPILL IN ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW... SO SCATTERED STRATOCU MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LOWS 45-50 WITH WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST... BUT INITIALLY GETS HELD UP BY THE MOUNTAINS. SAT/SAT NIGHT: MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC IN THE AFTERNOON... AS A NOSE OF ENHANCED PW AND WEAK VORTICITY DROPS TO THE SSE AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE LOW. MOISTURE IS UNIMPRESSIVE HOWEVER... WITH VERY SMALL FORECAST MUCAPE... SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE... FOCUSED ON THE NW PIEDMONT AND NRN/CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN... AS SUGGESTED BY THE HI-RES WRF MODEL RUNS. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. HIGHS 71-76 NE TO SW... AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH OUR FIRST REAL STRETCH OF 80 DEGREE DAYS OF THE YEAR. THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY TO VERY LIGHT WINDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. IN FACT THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING FOR GREENSBORO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS LESS THAN 10 KTS OF WIND ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH 200 MB. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL VERY WARM IN CONTRAST TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THIS PAST WEEK...THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND NOT EVEN CLOSE TO APPROACHING RECORDS AS THESE ARE ALL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD BUT SOME CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA COULD IMPINGE ON THE TRIAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS BUT COVERAGE...AND DURATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 655 AM FRIDAY... MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE CENTRAL NC TAFS THROUGH THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED BY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON (AFTER 20Z). A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH MVFR CIGS COMMON AT ALL SITES... AND PERIODS OF VFR-MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS... FROM MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS OF RDU/RWI/FAY 14Z-20Z TODAY... BUT THE THUNDER COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH OR NE AT 10-14 KTS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS... THEN DROP BACK UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING BEYOND 12Z SAT MORNING: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY SAT MORNING THROUGH TUE... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST... SHIFTING OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/22 SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD

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