Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 061737 RRA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 137 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL...AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT...OVER THE VIRGINIAS TODAY. MEANWHILE TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING BERMUDA HIGH AND PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WHICH WILL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES... NEAR THE NC-VA STATE LINE WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS WILL LEAVE OUT ANY RAIN CHANCES. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BEAT WRT TEMPERATURES WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT A TAD WARMER GIVEN ENCROACHING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FORMING OFF THE SE COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY... EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW FORMING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL JOG SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY GIVEN WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CONTINUED RIDGING ALOFT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GOM NEWD INTO THE NORTHEAST US. THUS...WITH SYSTEM STILL REMAINING OFFSHORE...ANY IMPACTS THURSDAY- THURSDAY NIGHT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AS BERMUDA RIDGING CONTINUES TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILL COUNTIES. ASSOCIATED THICKENING CLOUDS SHIELD WILL TEMPER DAYTIME HEATING IN THESE AREAS AS WELL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER 80S OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL PIEDMONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES COUPLED WITH MORE HUMID AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THE AREA BY THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILDER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WITH POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIALLY SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF/NEAR THE COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... WITH MOST MODELS CURRENTLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR THE NORTHERN SC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... THEN MEANDERING AROUND THE NC/SC BORDER REGION INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT. HOWEVER... THE LOW HAS YET TO DEVELOP AND IT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BECOMES HIGH. NOT SURPRISINGLY... THE QPF OF THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE NOT ONLY WITH AMOUNTS (A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO SEVERAL INCHES)... BUT WITH PLACEMENT (RANGING FROM SC OR SOUTHERN NC TO OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM). THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HIGHLIGHTS MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FRI-SUN. AFTER THAT... EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY... BEFORE DRYING AND COOLING CONDITIONS ARRIVE MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SUB-VFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH (KFAY) THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT... INCREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY...STRONGEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AT 25 KFT (LOWER AT KFAY) BY 18Z THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... BUT SHOULD THEY MOVE IN EARLIER...KFAY AND KRWI WOULD BE THE FIRST SITES TO EXPERIENCE THEM. LOOKING AHEAD: THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE COASTAL LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...STALLING AND MEANDERING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA OR NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO GET BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM... THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVERSE AVIATION IMPACTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NC. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...RAH

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