Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KRAH 030218
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1020 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON HEATING OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 8K FT COUPLED
WITH A MINOR S/W  CREATED A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL NC DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND THE S/W DEPARTING THE REGION...BULK OF CLOUDINESS
DISSIPATED NY EARLY EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW STRANDS OF CIRRUS. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...POCKETS OF FOG LIMITING THE VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1-3 MILES
WILL OCCUR..MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS WHERE
DEWPOINT SPREADS AT MID EVENING WERE LESS THAN 5 MILES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S IN THE OUTLYING AREAS TO
AROUND 50 ON THE URBANIZED LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD THE COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING IS
EXPECTED AGAIN AND SCATTERED CU ABOVE 6K FT.   ANOTHER BENIGN
DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SLIP INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.  MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGHS SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER...75-80...AND LOWS 50-55 SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...

WHILE A MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE IA/NE/SD BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT OVERHEAD AND STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MID-WEEK...NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL COME WITH LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACT. INSTEAD...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MAINLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NC/VA
(PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS)...IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MAXIMIZED H85-7 MOISTURE.

OTHERWISE...MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE HYBRID
LOW THAT NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WILL DEVELOP INVOF THE
BAHAMAS AND THEN DRIFT NORTH OFF THE SE US COAST...AND POSSIBLY
INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY STATIONARY MID-UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS...THROUGH LATE WEEK. AFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL FOR CENTRAL NC AT THIS TIME...GIVEN
THAT THE CLUSTERING OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN
THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER AND
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
FRI-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 742 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT... TO NEAR CALM TOWARD MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD
TO KRWI.

OUTLOOK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.