Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 030705 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 305 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY... OVERVIEW: MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN NC...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD OWING TO LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES: INCREASE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD COUNTERACT SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGH BOTH DAYS 77- 81...COOLEST ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STAY MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY... SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO BRING THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THUS FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED...LIKELY TEMPERED SOME (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST) FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 122 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY... GENERALLY FROM KRDU AND KFAY EASTWARD TO KRWI. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SOME EARLY MORNING FOG...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...CBL

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