Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 051716 RRA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 116 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1020 AM TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC...EVEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST...ALONG THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CENTRAL NC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AT H85 AND H7...WITH A WEAK TROUGH AT H5 AND H25. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OUT OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...EXCEPT POSSIBLY A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. WITH LITTLE TO NO WAA INTO THE REGION FROM YESTERDAY AND CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHEST IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY... TO OUR NORTH...A COLD FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL LIKELY STALL AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT AS IT TRIES TO SLIP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. MEANWHILE TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...MODELS ARE HINTING AT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING BERMUDA HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WHICH WILL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES...NEAR THE NC-VA STATE LINE WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LACK OF MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THUS WILL LEAVE OUT ANY RAIN CHANCES. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS...HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TAD WARMER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 247 AM TUESDAY... THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND... THE TROUGHING OUT WEST. HOWEVER... MODELS STILL LIKELY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THAT WOULD DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOST MODELS KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXCLUSIVELY. HPC CONTINUED TO FAVOR A BLEND OF THE TWO CAMPS OF MODELS TO ENSURE CONTINUITY OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THIS IS ACCEPTED AS THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR OUR LATE WEEK FORECAST. OUR CHANCE OF RAIN MAY END UP MOSTLY COMING FROM A SCATTERING OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FOCUS ALONG OR NEAR THE EXPECTED BACKDOOR FRONT THURSDAY AND THEN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION... SOME MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY COME INTO PLAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE - BUT THE DETAILS CONTINUE SKETCHY AT BEST. UNTIL THAT PROCESS IMPROVES... WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME 60+ BY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NOW WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EACH DAY. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 60-65. HIGHS 78-85. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS THIS AFT/EVE...DECREASING TO 5 KTS OR LESS AND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD: THE BIGGEST AVIATION IMPACT WILL COME LATER IN THE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE TRACK/LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...THUS CONDITIONS BEYOND THURSDAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE...ENHANCED EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW COULD YIELD AN INCREASED THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS/FOG. SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE ONSHORE...THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND REDUCED AVIATION CONDITIONS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...RAH

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