Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200523 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 120 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 935 PM SUNDAY... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON...WAYNE...AND SAMPSON COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NC THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN LINE (QLCS) OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS. THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS AND ACCELERATES NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH A DRY SLOT APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR SW NC AND THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NC/SC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...THE HIGH RES CAMS SHOW THESE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS PETERING OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE RAH CWA AND THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 06Z. THUS...ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DECREASING A DEGREE OR TWO...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 PM SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAINLY FROM THE 21 TO 06Z TIME FRAME AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION PUSHES EAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT IF A LESS LINEAR AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE OCCURS... MORE LIKELY EARLIER IN THE EVENT...THAN A INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 78 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 52 TO 60 RANGE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 117 AM MONDAY... DRY WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AND BRING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY DECREASES IN THE FORECAST BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SHOW SPREAD WITH HANDLING THE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAT MAY AFFECT OUR REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. JUST HOW THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE POLAR JET AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REACHES INTO THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES. FOR NOW... WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND (CENTERED ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT).
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&& .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...BADGETT

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