Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 260602 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 200 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSSES THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 654 PM SATURDAY... ...COOL AND DAMP THIS EVENING... ... A CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT... SEVERE WEATHER NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NC... LEAVING COOL STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE... THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SURFACE FRONT HAD SAGGED FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF NC AS OF EARLY EVENING. SURFACE WINDS AT HOFFMAN... FORT BRAGG... AND GOLDSBORO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NE. LOW CLOUDS... AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE... AND A COOL NE FLOW PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE REGION BEHIND THIS FRONT. THE FRONT MARKED VERY STABLE AND EVEN CHILLY AIR TO THE NORTH FROM WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH. THE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MID 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST AT 600 PM. AREAS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST TO THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING LEAVING AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR OF NC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY OR FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM THE 600 PM READINGS WITH THE NE FLOW IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT... THE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER KY ARE FORECAST TO POSSIBLY APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE NW. IF THE CONVECTION DOES HOLD TOGETHER AFTER IT PUSHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NC/VA... IT WILL ENCOUNTER VERY STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO THE CAD EVENT. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN... AND BECOME ROOTED ALOFT... SUGGESTING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS MUCH LOWER THAN ALONG OR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR BUT THAT IS ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED AT THE MOMENT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY... SUNDAY... SHEAR AXIS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND FOCUS MORE IN THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY TO NO MORE THAN 8-12 DEGREES. NLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WILL FILTER DRIER STABLE AIR INTO CENTRAL NC. THUS SHOULD SEE A DWINDLING POP TREND NORTH-TO SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY MID-UPPER 50S FAR NE TO THE LOWER 70S FAR SW. SUNDAY NIGHT... NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THE DRIER STABLE AIR MASS INTO OUR REGION. OVERCAST SKIES MAY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH NORTH-TO-SOUTH. IF THIS CLEARING TREND DOES OCCUR OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE POCKETS IF DENSE FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 310 PM SATURDAY... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... WITH A SERIES OF S/W DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NC ON MONDAY. HOWEVER... CENTRAL NC WILL BE REMOVED ENOUGH FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE... SO DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... WITH PERHAPS JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ON MONDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL NC). THUS... EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK... GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: UNCERTAINTY STILL REIGNS SUPREME IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT/LIFT NORTHEASTWARD... SLOWER THOUGH ON THE ECMWF. THE SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP MID LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO HAVE RAMIFICATIONS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT SURFACE PATTERN AND POP/TEMP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A MID LEVEL LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA AND TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC. HOW THESE LATTER TWO FEATURES INTERACT OR DONT INTERACT WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN DETERMINING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF ALLOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM OPENING MID LEVEL LOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA... WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM S/W ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA AND AMPLIFYING THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CAROLINA HELPING TO DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW WITH GENERALLY WET AN COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE... THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA...WHICH HELPS TO DRIVE THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA FASTER... THANKS IN PART BY THE FASTER DEPARTURE OF THE CURRENT MID/UPPER LOW NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH RESULTANT WARMER TEMPS... YET STILL GENERALLY SIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED A CLOSE TO WPC... KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WITH HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF CENTRAL NC AND AN IN-SITU COLD AIR DAMMING AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BAND OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND BRING A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM THROUGH 12Z. A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM KRCZ TO KFAY...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG INVERSION NEAR THE SURFACE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 12Z...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE AFTER AS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN SUB-VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF VFR OF CONDITIONS IS LOW...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PWB/WSS NEAR TERM...PWB/WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...22

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