Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 200138 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 938 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST TO THE CAROLINA COAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AS OF 935 PM SUNDAY... A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTON...WAYNE...AND SAMPSON COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NC THROUGH 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE MAIN LINE (QLCS) OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KTS. THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW DEEPENS AND ACCELERATES NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH A DRY SLOT APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR SW NC AND THE RAIN IS MOVING OUT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NC/SC MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...THE HIGH RES CAMS SHOW THESE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS PETERING OUT BEFORE THEY REACH THE RAH CWA AND THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AROUND 06Z. THUS...ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH RELATIVELY LOWER DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS DECREASING A DEGREE OR TWO...LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 PM SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP THERE IS A SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAINLY FROM THE 21 TO 06Z TIME FRAME AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION PUSHES EAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT IF A LESS LINEAR AND MORE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE MODE OCCURS... MORE LIKELY EARLIER IN THE EVENT...THAN A INCREASING THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRESENT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 78 TO 84 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 52 TO 60 RANGE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY... TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO CENTRAL NC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE LOW END. NEVERTHELESS...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH (EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE) TO THE MID/UPPER 70S FURTHER SOUTH. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE END OF THE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN INDICATES THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THEN...AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES...MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SPREADING PRECIP BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT...DETAILS HAVE YET TO BE WORKED OUT. REGARDLESS...WILL SHOW POPS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH (AS OF NOW AT LEAST) DRIER CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY... IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ENDING IN THE NORTHEAST BY AROUND 06Z...BUT LOW CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS WILL BE IFR...VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR DUE TO MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...BLAES

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