Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 221852 AFDRAH FXUS62 KRAH DDHHMM AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 250 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY... THROUGH TONIGHT: GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AS SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE SW AT 10-20 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 30-33 MPH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNW ON SCHEDULE LATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE "BETTER" COVERAGE (STILL WELL UNDER 30%) WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON... AS AGREED UPON BY THE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND SREF PROBABILITIES... BUT A CONSIDERABLE DOWNSLOPE-DIRECTED LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP TO THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH PW VALUES THAT ARE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL WILL GREATLY LIMIT COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED MENTION OF SHOWERS AS IS CURRENTLY CONFIGURED... GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 64 UNTIL 7 PM THEN S OF HWY 64 FROM MID EVENING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN DRY. GIVEN THE INVERTED-V APPEARANCE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9-9.5 C/KM... EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED WIND GUSTS IN AND AROUND ANY OF THESE SHOWERS... POTENTIALLY CAUSING BRIEF LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH... BUT THESE WILL NOT BE COMMONPLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO GIVEN SUCH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEL PROJECTIONS OF MUCAPE PEAKING AT 100-300 J/KG... BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD MAKE ANY SUCH OCCURRENCE A RARITY. OTHERWISE... EXPECT A PERIOD OF VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT... FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT NORTH TO SOUTH... AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NW. LOWS FROM 43 NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH... IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. FOR THU/THU NIGHT: EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TOMORROW AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO BE FROM THE WNW... AND WITH A DECENT HEIGHT GRADIENT JUST ALOFT AT 925 MB AND GOOD MIXING WITH HEATING... SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD ARE LIKELY TO REBOUND TO 10-20 KTS... ALBEIT WITH MUCH LOWER GUSTS (IF ANY) THAN WE`VE SEEN TODAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 30-40 M BELOW NORMAL THU MORNING... BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AND A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE... EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S... STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK REINFORCING TROUGH WILL DROP SE THROUGH NC LATE THU... WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW... ITS CENTER EXPECTED TO BE JUST NW OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECOUPLING LIKELY... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY FOR CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THICKNESSES DROPPING TO UNDER 1325 M OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT... EXPECT CHILLY LOWS FROM 36-42... WITH THESE COOLER READINGS IN THE RURAL OUTLYING AREAS. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT THE FORMATION OF FROST... HOWEVER WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS IN LATER FORECASTS. BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULDN`T BE A WIDESPREAD EVENT ANYWAY. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 220 AM WEDNESDAY... THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...THOUGH PERHAPS STALLING TO THE SOUTH OVER GA/SC AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. REGARDLESS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL NC WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S (NORTH) TO LOWER 70S (SOUTH). LOWS FRI MORNING WILL BE CHILLY AS A DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN RURAL AND LOW- LYING AREAS (ESP WESTERN PIEDMONT) TO LOWER 40S IN THE SE COASTAL PLAIN. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN CENTERED ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE A LEAD SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WITHIN THE ACTIVE JET STREAM AXIS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC FRI-SUN. ADDITIONAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK IN SIMILAR FASHION TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC... WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES (IF ANY) AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS. OF MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN TO AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE WIND THROUGH 23Z... MAINLY FROM THE SW AT 15-22 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 27-32 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE SSE BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z... RESULTING IN A SHIFT OF WINDS TO INITIALLY A WNW DIRECTION AND REDUCED SPEEDS DOWN TO 9-14 KTS WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT... HOWEVER THESE WILL BE FAR TOO SPARSE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. WIND GUSTS MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR SHOWERS... WHERE AN ISOLATED GUST OVER 40 KTS MAY OCCUR... BUT THESE SPEEDS WILL NOT BE COMMON. THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWER CHANCES WILL SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES... LASTING THROUGH THU MORNING. AFTER MID MORNING THU... WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WNW AT AROUND 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED. LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A WARM FRONT FROM THE SW WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (LIKELY IFR) STARTING SAT MORNING... LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT... AND PERHAPS THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. -GIH && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY... WILL MAINTAIN THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. RECENT RAINFALL HAS ALLOWED FOR MOISTENING OF FINE FUELS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA... BUT WITH TODAY`S WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 10- 20 KTS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KTS... AND RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25-29% RANGE... DRYING OF TOP-LAYER FUELS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY... AND OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT ADVISED THROUGH SUNDOWN. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...HARTFIELD FIRE WEATHER...DJF/HARTFIELD

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