Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KRAH 240551 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 150 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND... BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ALONG THE FRONT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY... A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SKIRT OVER CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THEY REMAIN IN THE MID 40S. THE DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SE OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW TO MID 30 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN THE SE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WEATHER THE WINDS DECOUPLE AS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR. CURRENTLY EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SE. AS OF 10 PM THE WINDS WERE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NW...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING CALM WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPERATURES CLOSELY AS SOME PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE USUAL LOW LYING AND SHADED LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE AND THE DESCENT CHANCE THE WINDS WILL STAY UP...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD FROST CONCERNS AND THUS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 PM THURSDAY... FRIDAY... SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD WHILE NW FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY/COOL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AVENGE 20- 25M BELOW NORMAL...SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS 7-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV TEMP GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPS MID-UPPER 60S...CLOSE TO 70 FAR SOUTH. FRIDAY NIGHT... SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE A SHEAR AXIS ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. LIFTS NEWD. THE APPROACH OF THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL INCREASE SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL NC. AS THE FLOW STRENGTHENS TOWARD DAYBREAK...THIS OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SHOULD INITIATE/SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL NC...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK OVER THE FAR WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MIN TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THEREAFTER. SINCE SKIES EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY CLOSE TO SUNSET...SHOULD SEE TEMPS QUICKLY COOL OFF IN THE EARLY EVENING THEN LEVELING OFF CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR 40 IN THE FAR NE (WHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THE LONGEST) TO THE UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 305 PM THURSDAY... SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY... AROUND THE BASE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM... AND PWS CLIMBING TO 1.5 INCHES. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON... AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY... AS THE AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND... AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOVES EASTWARD... OPENING INTO AN UPPER WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA... LIKELY INDUCING SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF COAST. SUPPRESSED SOLUTION SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC AS AN OUTLIER... SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS GIVEN A TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST... AND THEN ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS/12Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 150 AM FRIDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BUILDS EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE MID CLOUDS BETWEEN 7-10K FT OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY... WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MONDAY AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH-NW.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...SEC AVIATION...22

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.