Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 061855 RRA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 255 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING BERMUDA HIGH AND PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WHICH WILL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...NEAR THE NC-VA STATE LINE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD IS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 PM WEDNESDAY... THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION...AND STARTING TO JOG WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS...CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND STORMS...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER EXPECT HIGHEST HIGHS AND LOWEST LOWS IN THE NW...LOW 80S AND UPPER 50S...AND THE LOWEST HIGHS AND HIGHEST LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST...MID 70S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE STRENGTH WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND REMAINS THE EVOLUTION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... WITH POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIALLY SUBTROPICAL LOW OFF/NEAR THE COAST HAS BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... WITH MOST MODELS CURRENTLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR THE NORTHERN SC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... THEN MEANDERING AROUND THE NC/SC BORDER REGION INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WASHING OUT. HOWEVER... THE LOW HAS YET TO DEVELOP AND IT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE SYSTEM`S EVOLUTION BECOMES HIGH. NOT SURPRISINGLY... THE QPF OF THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE NOT ONLY WITH AMOUNTS (A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO SEVERAL INCHES)... BUT WITH PLACEMENT (RANGING FROM SC OR SOUTHERN NC TO OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM). THEREFORE... WE WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HIGHLIGHTS MORE CLOUDS AND COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FRI-SUN. AFTER THAT... EARLY NEXT WEEK... A COLD FRONT SHOULD INCREASE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEST AND NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT AND/OR TUESDAY... BEFORE DRYING AND COOLING CONDITIONS ARRIVE MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SUB-VFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH (KFAY) THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT... INCREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY...STRONGEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AT 25 KFT (LOWER AT KFAY) BY 18Z THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... BUT SHOULD THEY MOVE IN EARLIER...KFAY AND KRWI WOULD BE THE FIRST SITES TO EXPERIENCE THEM. LOOKING AHEAD: THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE COASTAL LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...STALLING AND MEANDERING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA OR NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO GET BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM... THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVERSE AVIATION IMPACTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NC. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...RAH

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