Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 061859 RRA AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 259 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY... CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING BERMUDA HIGH AND PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WHICH WILL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST...NEAR THE NC-VA STATE LINE WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD IS THAT THE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST. LOWS TONIGHT A TAD WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY AND THURSDAY: THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION...AND STARTING TO JOG WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS...CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND STORMS...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER EXPECT HIGHEST HIGHS AND LOWEST LOWS IN THE NW...LOW 80S AND UPPER 50S...AND THE LOWEST HIGHS AND HIGHEST LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST...MID 70S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE STRENGTH WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. -RAH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A 10008 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO BE ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF MYRTLE BEACH ON FRIDAY AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR IF IT IS TO BE A NAMED STORM OR NOT...THE PRESENTATION ON THE GLOBAL MODELS LOOKS FAIRLY ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY STATIONARY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME RETROGRADING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. THIS WILL KEEP IMPACTS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY FAIRLY MINIMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FOR A QUOTE TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES FLUCTUATING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT A FEW SETS OF BANDING SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BUT QPF SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...WILL CURRENTLY GO WITH A FORECAST OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE. SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT WONT BE VERY STRONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. WITH CLOUD COVER MOST DENSE IN THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER 70S PROBABLE WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE LOW 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL. LOWS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SO SOME FOGGY PATCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING. -ELLIS && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ALONG THE SC AND NC COASTLINES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. MODEL FORECASTS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY AND CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES LOWER. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HELPS TO USHER THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT TO SEA. AS BEST AS DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT RIGHT NOW EXPECT THE MOST RAIN TO BE IN THE SOUTH EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS TIME MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT WOULD RESULT IN ANY KIND OF FLOODING. A WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CHARACTERIZED BY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES ALSO LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS. ON MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GOOD INSTABILITY BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF SHEAR SUGGESTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION AT BEST. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S. UNTIL THEN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 135 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SUB-VFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE FAR SOUTH (KFAY) THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT... INCREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY...STRONGEST IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXPECT BROKEN CIGS AT 25 KFT (LOWER AT KFAY) BY 18Z THURSDAY. RAIN SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL UNTIL AFTER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD... BUT SHOULD THEY MOVE IN EARLIER...KFAY AND KRWI WOULD BE THE FIRST SITES TO EXPERIENCE THEM. LOOKING AHEAD: THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE COASTAL LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE FLORIDA COAST...WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...STALLING AND MEANDERING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA OR NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO GET BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM... THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVERSE AVIATION IMPACTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NC. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...RAH

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