Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 070206 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1006 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A CUT-OFF LOW OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTH NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 PM WEDNESDAY... BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BKN/ OVC CIRRUS WILL PERSIST AND GRADUALLY THICKEN BY SUNRISE... HOWEVER...AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT (~300 MB) ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM A CUT-OFF LOW CAUGHT WITHIN THE RIDGE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE /EASTERLY/ FLOW ATTENDANT THE APPROACHING CUT-OFF LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST BY SUNRISE THU MORNING...NEITHER SPRINKLES NOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE NWS RAH COASTAL PLAIN (I.E. SAMPSON COUNTY). EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST/NW PIEDMONT TO NEAR 60F EAST/SE. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY AND THURSDAY: THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...WITH BOTH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION...AND STARTING TO JOG WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS...CLOUDY SKIES...SHOWERS AND STORMS...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RAIN AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL. WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER EXPECT HIGHEST HIGHS AND LOWEST LOWS IN THE NW...LOW 80S AND UPPER 50S...AND THE LOWEST HIGHS AND HIGHEST LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST...MID 70S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE STRENGTH WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. -RAH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: A 10008 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO BE ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF MYRTLE BEACH ON FRIDAY AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR IF IT IS TO BE A NAMED STORM OR NOT...THE PRESENTATION ON THE GLOBAL MODELS LOOKS FAIRLY ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY STATIONARY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME RETROGRADING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE. THIS WILL KEEP IMPACTS TO MUCH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY FAIRLY MINIMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FOR A QUOTE TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH PW VALUES FLUCTUATING AROUND 1.5 INCHES. EXPECT A FEW SETS OF BANDING SHOWERS TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BUT QPF SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL...WILL CURRENTLY GO WITH A FORECAST OF LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE. SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT WONT BE VERY STRONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS OR SO. WITH CLOUD COVER MOST DENSE IN THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE COOLEST HIGHS IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER 70S PROBABLE WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE LOW 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL. LOWS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SO SOME FOGGY PATCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE BY MORNING. -ELLIS && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY... MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ALONG THE SC AND NC COASTLINES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. MODEL FORECASTS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY AND CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES LOWER. NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HELPS TO USHER THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT TO SEA. AS BEST AS DETAILS CAN BE IRONED OUT RIGHT NOW EXPECT THE MOST RAIN TO BE IN THE SOUTH EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AT THIS TIME MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT WOULD RESULT IN ANY KIND OF FLOODING. A WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK WOULD RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CHARACTERIZED BY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES ALSO LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS. ON MONDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GOOD INSTABILITY BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF SHEAR SUGGESTIVE OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION AT BEST. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S. UNTIL THEN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY... 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST WHERE SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...IT APPEARS THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD (00Z/08). OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND BEGIN TO LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME GUST POSSIBLE (MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA). LOOKING AHEAD: THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE COASTAL LOW...CURRENTLY OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...STALLING AND MEANDERING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA OR NORTH CAROLINA LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO GET BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM... THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME ADVERSE AVIATION IMPACTS IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NC. ADDITIONALLY...ENHANCED EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN INCREASE THREAT FOR MORNING STRATUS/FOG. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...VINCENT SHORT TERM...RAH LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...RAH

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