Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 031740 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 140 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM SUNDAY... REGIONAL VIS IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KGSO RAOB SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING...UP TO NEAR 750MB...AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. DEWPOINTS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED MIXING...SO WILL LOWER VALUES A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES: LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RETREATING OFFSHORE HIGH WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN NC...WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES: INCREASE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A BATCH OF MID- LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY SHOULD COUNTERACT SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES. HIGHS 77-81...COOLEST ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS PROG A WEAKNESS ALOFT TO MEANDER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY WEAK FORCING AND RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN AN INCH)...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STAY MOSTLY DRY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (DIURNAL AND TERRAIN DRIVEN)...BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY... SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK...I.E. WARMING TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL NEED TO MONITORED AS IT COULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. FOR NOW MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEP THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS DO BRING THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. THUS FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM EVEN MORE...WITH MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S EXPECTED...LIKELY TEMPERED SOME (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST) FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AS OF 135 PM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUDS...AROUND 7K FT....WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TONIGHT...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WEST OF KGSO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND BECOME SSW LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...RETURN FLOW AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH AND THE POSSIBLE SUB- TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH THE WEEK. EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL WILL ACCORDINGLY INCREASE MID TO LATE WEEK.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL/22 SHORT TERM...KRD LONG TERM...KRD AVIATION...22

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