Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 040620 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 220 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS....SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... AS OF 950 PM SUNDAY... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MODIFY AS TEMPS ARE A SOLID 3-6 DEGREES WARMER AT 01Z MON COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THIS SUGGEST MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. MIN TEMPS 50-55. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE STATE. THE MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE HIGH IS PRETTY LIMITED AND MOST OF CENTRAL NC WILL STAY WELL CAPPED AS DEWPOINTS AGAIN MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT (MENTIONED ABOVE) LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE STABILITY AS DRIFTS EAST TOWARD THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. INSTEAD...THE ONLY CHANCE OF PRECIP...AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE AT THAT...MAY COME FROM SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DRIFTING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY...AROUND 10C...AND WHILE MIXING ISN`T AS DEEP IT SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH 850MB...SUGGESTING HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...78-81. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 220 AM MONDAY... ...MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST STILL CLOUDED BY POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT... THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXPECTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEK... WITH RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN STATES... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE A COUPLE OF CAMPS STILL EXIST ON THE POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TRENDS OF RECENT GFS RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE GEFS/ECENS/CANADIAN ALL FAVOR AT LEAST A MORE WESTWARD POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE... WHILE AT LEAST THE 12Z/03 ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL/UKMET LIE FARTHER EAST. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS ACTUALLY PULLS THE LOW PRESSURE WELL WESTWARD AND INLAND OVER SC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HPC CONTINUED TO FAVOR USING THE ENSEMBLES WHICH WOULD BE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND KEEPING THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST. THE HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AND HAS INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM... IF IT DEVELOPS... MAY HAVE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT APPEARS THAT THE FARTHER NORTH THE SYSTEM TRACKS... THE LESS IN THE WAY OF TROPICAL SUPPORT IT WOULD HAVE GIVEN THE LESS THAN FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. OBVIOUSLY... THE ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL GO A GREAT WAY IN DETERMINING IF OUR REGION WILL GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE. FINALLY... THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE AND POSSIBLY THE MID/UPPER SOUTHEASTERN US CUT OFF LOW MAY FINALLY GET A BIT OF A KICKER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OUT WEST FINALLY PULLS OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST INCREASING OUR SW FLOW ALOFT. FOR NOW... WE WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS... WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THIS WEEK. LOWS LATER IN THE WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 60 OR EVEN 65. HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 200 AM MONDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY SLIPS OFF THE COAST BUT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TODAY AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS TODAY AND DRIFT EAST...THE PROBABILITY OF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING THE TRIAD REMAINS VERY SMALL AND WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE TAF. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIALLY ADVERSE WEATHER COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RADIATION FOG AT KRWI TOWARD DAYBREAK TODAY. OTHERWISE SCT CLOUDS AT 6-10KFT THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE PROMINENT CLOUD DECK OF SCT-BKN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AT AROUND 6-8KFT. A LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERLY WIND FROM 190- 220 DEGREES AT 5-10 KTS IS EXPECTED TODAY. OUTLOOK...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE AND PERSIST DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS NORTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE WEEK ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL STORM SYSTEM TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. -BLAES && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BLAES NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...BADGETT AVIATION...BLAES

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